Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELPC) Fair Value 2026

ELPC · Utilities - Regulated Electric ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELPC) trades at $13.89, versus a $18.43 median fair value across its 7 active models — 32.7% above the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $39.36.

Key Facts

Ticker
ELPC
Price
$13.89
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +183.4% upside with 38% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELPC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELPC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $18.43, 32.7% above the current price of $13.89. Estimates range from $4.15 to $39.36. ELPC scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ELPC’s +32.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Electric sector median is -22.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Companhia Paranaense de Energia Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ELPC?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.89)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $39.36 +183.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $18.43 +32.7%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $4.15 -70.2%
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What Is ELPC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $4.15 to $39.36

CirclFi's 7 active models place Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELPC) between $4.15 and $39.36 per share, a spread of 191% of the median. The median of that range — $18.43 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ELPC, against a current price of $13.89.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Bayesian DCF
$4.15median $18.43$39.36
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$4.15
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$39.36
Model agreement4 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ELPC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ELPC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELPC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Companhia Paranaense de Energia's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $18.43. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $13.89 (implied upside of +32.7%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 4 of 7 bullish models. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +183.4% (fair value: $39.36), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -70.2% ($4.15). The spread between these extremes — +253.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ELPC?

7 of 13 models are currently active for ELPC. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ELPC is $18.43 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $39.36 on its own, implying +183.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ELPC Rank in Utilities - Regulated Electric?

Among 39 Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, ELPC ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

The Utilities - Regulated Electric sector introduces analytical considerations specific to regulated utility businesses. For Companhia Paranaense de Energia, metrics like renewable generation mix provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is ELPC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ELPC a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Companhia Paranaense de Energia. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Companhia Paranaense de Energia scores 7.5 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +253.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ELPC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ELPC's 7 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Companhia Paranaense de Energia Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Electric Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks with 13-model coverage

IDAIDACORP, Inc.QOC 7.6ETREntergy CorporationQOC 7.4MGEEMGE Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6EIXEdison InternationalQOC 7.4NGGNational Grid plcQOC 7.7PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group IncorporatedQOC 7.4FTSFortis Inc.QOC 7.2XELXcel Energy Inc.QOC 6.9CIGCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIGQOC 8.5GNEGenie Energy Ltd.QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: IDA · ETR · MGEE · EIX · NGG · PEG · FTS · XEL · CIG · GNE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ELPC?

7 companies across all industries closest to ELPC’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

TOURTuniu CorporationQOC 7.5FNLCThe First Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5CBNAChain Bridge Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5BEBloom Energy CorporationQOC 7.5CONConcentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.QOC 7.5LOANManhattan Bridge Capital, Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TOUR · FNLC · CBNA · BE · CON · LOAN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Companhia Paranaense de Energia’s Valuation?

What is Companhia Paranaense de Energia's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELPC)'s intrinsic value at $18.43 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $4.15 to $39.36. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $39.36 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ELPC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.89, 5 of 7 active models suggest ELPC may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $18.43, 32.7% above the current price of $13.89 — a consensus view that ELPC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Companhia Paranaense de Energia's business model in Utilities - Regulated Electric.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for ELPC?

Companhia Paranaense de Energia's QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ELPC?

CirclFi analyzes ELPC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ELPC?

Of the 7 models currently active on ELPC, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $39.36 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $4.15. CirclFi's published fair value for ELPC is the median of that range, $18.43, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 191% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ELPC a value trap in 2026?

Companhia Paranaense de Energia's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELPC) has a median fair value of $18.43 — 32.7% above the current price of $13.89 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ELPC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ELPC valuation
  • Financial statements: Companhia Paranaense de Energia 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001041792) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ELPC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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