MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) Fair Value 2026

MGEE · Utilities - Regulated Electric ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (20/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) trades at $78.15, versus a $35.40 median fair value across its 11 active models — 54.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 20/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $54.96.

Key Facts

Ticker
MGEE
Price
$78.15
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
20/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: 11 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $35.40, 54.7% below the current price of $78.15. Estimates range from $13.49 to $92.70. MGEE scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 20/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MGEE’s -54.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Electric sector median is -25.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MGE Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MGEE?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($78.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $54.96 -29.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.49 -82.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $35.40 -54.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.02 -64.1%
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What Is MGEE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $13.49 to $92.70

CirclFi's 11 active models place MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) between $13.49 and $92.70 per share, a spread of 224% of the median. The median of that range — $35.40 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MGEE, against a current price of $78.15.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$13.49median $35.40$92.70
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$13.49
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$92.70
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MGEE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MGEE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MGE Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $35.40. Trading at its current price of $78.15, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -54.7%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +18.6% (fair value: $92.70), while EPV is the most conservative at -82.7% ($13.49). The spread between these extremes — +101.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About MGEE?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MGEE. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MGEE is $35.40 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $54.96 on its own, implying -29.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MGEE Rank in Utilities - Regulated Electric?

Among 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, MGEE ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

The Utilities - Regulated Electric sector introduces analytical considerations specific to regulated utility businesses. For MGE Energy, Inc., metrics like renewable generation mix provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MGEE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MGEE a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for MGE Energy, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MGE Energy, Inc. scores 7.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +101.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MGEE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MGEE's 11 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MGE Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Electric Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks with 13-model coverage

NGGNational Grid plcQOC 7.7IDAIDACORP, Inc.QOC 7.6DUKDuke Energy CorporationQOC 7.8ELPCCompanhia Paranaense de EnergiaQOC 7.5NEENextEra Energy, Inc.QOC 7.9ENICEnel Chile S.A.QOC 7.4DTEDTE Energy CompanyQOC 7.3KEPKorea Electric Power CorporationQOC 7.0NKLRTerra Innovatum Global N.V.QOC 5.3CIGCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIGQOC 8.5GNEGenie Energy Ltd.QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: NGG · IDA · DUK · ELPC · NEE · ENIC · DTE · KEP · NKLR · CIG · GNE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MGEE?

7 companies across all industries closest to MGEE’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

JLHLJulong Holding LimitedQOC 7.6CWENClearway Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6BENFranklin Templeton Inc.QOC 7.6MGMMGM Resorts InternationalQOC 7.6ARWRArrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.6NBRNabors Industries Ltd.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: JLHL · CWEN · BEN · MGM · ARWR · NBR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About MGE Energy, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is MGE Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE)'s intrinsic value at $35.40 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $13.49 to $92.70. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $54.96 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MGEE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $78.15, 1 of 11 active models suggest MGEE may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $35.40, 54.7% below the current price of $78.15 — a consensus view that MGEE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MGE Energy, Inc.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Electric.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for MGEE?

MGE Energy, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MGEE?

CirclFi analyzes MGEE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MGEE?

Of the 11 models currently active on MGEE, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $92.70 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $13.49. CirclFi's published fair value for MGEE is the median of that range, $35.40, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 224% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MGEE a value trap in 2026?

MGE Energy, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 20/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) has a median fair value of $35.40 — 54.7% below the current price of $78.15 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MGEE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MGEE valuation
  • Financial statements: MGE Energy, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001161728) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MGEE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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