National Grid plc (NGG) Fair Value 2026

NGG · Utilities - Regulated Electric ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, National Grid plc (NGG) trades at $79.35, versus a $59.75 median fair value across its 8 active models — 24.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $9.99.

Key Facts

Ticker
NGG
Price
$79.35
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is National Grid plc (NGG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, National Grid plc (NGG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $59.75, 24.7% below the current price of $79.35. Estimates range from $9.99 to $164.78. NGG scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NGG’s -24.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Electric sector median is -25.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy National Grid plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NGG?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($79.35)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $9.99 -87.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $59.74 -24.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $59.75 -24.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $58.47 -26.3%
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What Is NGG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $9.99 to $164.78

CirclFi's 8 active models place National Grid plc (NGG) between $9.99 and $164.78 per share, a spread of 259% of the median. The median of that range — $59.75 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NGG, against a current price of $79.35.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$9.99median $59.75$164.78
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$9.99
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$164.78
Model agreement1 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NGG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NGG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is National Grid plc (NGG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, National Grid plc's intrinsic value is estimated at $59.75. Trading at its current price of $79.35, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -24.7%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +107.7% (fair value: $164.78), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -87.4% ($9.99). The spread between these extremes — +195.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NGG?

8 of 13 models are currently active for NGG. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NGG is $59.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $9.99 on its own, implying -87.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NGG Rank in Utilities - Regulated Electric?

Among 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, NGG ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

National Grid plc's positioning within the Utilities - Regulated Electric segment means that renewable generation mix plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including electrification demand growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NGG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NGG a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for National Grid plc. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, National Grid plc scores 7.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +195.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NGG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NGG's 8 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy National Grid plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Electric Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks with 13-model coverage

DUKDuke Energy CorporationQOC 7.8MGEEMGE Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6NEENextEra Energy, Inc.QOC 7.9IDAIDACORP, Inc.QOC 7.6CMSCMS Energy CorporationQOC 8.0ELPCCompanhia Paranaense de EnergiaQOC 7.5LNTAlliant Energy CorporationQOC 7.3WECWEC Energy Group, Inc.QOC 7.0NWENorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.QOC 6.2CIGCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIGQOC 8.5GNEGenie Energy Ltd.QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: DUK · MGEE · NEE · IDA · CMS · ELPC · LNT · WEC · NWE · CIG · GNE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NGG?

7 companies across all industries closest to NGG’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

BCGBinah Capital Group, Inc.QOC 7.7TTITETRA Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.7CRGYCrescent Energy CompanyQOC 7.7TRPTC Energy CorporationQOC 7.7PDSPrecision Drilling CorporationQOC 7.7BABAAlibaba Group Holding LimitedQOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BCG · TTI · CRGY · TRP · PDS · BABA · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About National Grid plc’s Valuation?

What is National Grid plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts National Grid plc (NGG)'s intrinsic value at $59.75 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $9.99 to $164.78. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $9.99 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NGG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $79.35, 2 of 8 active models suggest NGG may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $59.75, 24.7% below the current price of $79.35 — a consensus view that NGG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits National Grid plc's business model in Utilities - Regulated Electric.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for NGG?

National Grid plc's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NGG?

CirclFi analyzes NGG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NGG?

Of the 8 models currently active on NGG, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $164.78 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $9.99. CirclFi's published fair value for NGG is the median of that range, $59.75, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 259% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NGG a value trap in 2026?

National Grid plc's Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, National Grid plc (NGG) has a median fair value of $59.75 — 24.7% below the current price of $79.35 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NGG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NGG valuation
  • Financial statements: National Grid plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001004315) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NGG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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