NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) Fair Value 2026

NWE · Utilities - Regulated Electric ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) trades at $70.32, versus a $36.98 median fair value across its 9 active models — 47.4% below the current price. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NWE
Price
$70.32
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $36.98, 47.4% below the current price of $70.32. Estimates range from $13.30 to $94.85. NWE scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NWE’s -47.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Electric sector median is -25.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NWE?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($70.32)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.30 -81.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $40.91 -41.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $36.20 -48.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $34.73 -50.6%
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What Is NWE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $13.30 to $94.85

CirclFi's 9 active models place NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) between $13.30 and $94.85 per share, a spread of 221% of the median. The median of that range — $36.98 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NWE, against a current price of $70.32.

Low · EPVHigh · PWERM
$13.30median $36.98$94.85
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$13.30
Most bullish modelPWERM$94.85
Model agreement2 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NWE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NWE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $36.98. Trading at $70.32, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -47.4%), as 6 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $94.85 (+34.9%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $13.30 (-81.1%). This +116.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NWE?

9 of 13 models are currently active for NWE. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NWE is $36.98 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NWE Rank in Utilities - Regulated Electric?

Among 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, NWE ranks #38 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

The Utilities - Regulated Electric sector introduces analytical considerations specific to utility businesses. For NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc., metrics like rate base growth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NWE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NWE a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +116.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NWE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NWE's 9 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Electric Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks with 13-model coverage

EDNEmpresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad AnónimaQOC 6.5NKLRTerra Innovatum Global N.V.QOC 5.3FEFirstEnergy Corp.QOC 6.5IMSRTerrestrial Energy Inc.QOC 5.1TXNMTXNM Energy, Inc.QOC 6.6CIGCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIGQOC 8.5NGGNational Grid plcQOC 7.7LNTAlliant Energy CorporationQOC 7.3WECWEC Energy Group, Inc.QOC 7.0GNEGenie Energy Ltd.QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: EDN · NKLR · FE · IMSR · TXNM · CIG · NGG · LNT · WEC · GNE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NWE?

7 companies across all industries closest to NWE’s Quality of Company score of 6.2/10.

CVRXCVRx, Inc.QOC 6.2TTSHTile Shop Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2MGNXMacroGenics, Inc.QOC 6.2OFIXOrthofix Medical Inc.QOC 6.2RVPRetractable Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.2QUIKQuickLogic CorporationQOC 6.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CVRX · TTSH · MGNX · OFIX · RVP · QUIK · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE)'s intrinsic value at $36.98 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $13.30 to $94.85. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NWE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $70.32, 2 of 9 active models suggest NWE may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $36.98, 47.4% below the current price of $70.32 — a consensus view that NWE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.'s business model in Utilities - Regulated Electric.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for NWE?

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NWE?

CirclFi analyzes NWE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NWE?

Of the 9 models currently active on NWE, PWERM is the most bullish at $94.85 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $13.30. CirclFi's published fair value for NWE is the median of that range, $36.98, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 221% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NWE a value trap in 2026?

NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. (NWE) has a median fair value of $36.98 — 47.4% below the current price of $70.32 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NWE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NWE valuation
  • Financial statements: NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001993004) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NWE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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