FVCBankcorp, Inc. (FVCB) Fair Value 2026

FVCB · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, FVCBankcorp, Inc. (FVCB) trades at $17.60, versus a $17.18 median fair value across its 6 active models — 2.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FVCB
Price
$17.60
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +55.8% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is FVCBankcorp, Inc. (FVCB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, FVCBankcorp, Inc. (FVCB) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $17.18, within 2.4% of the current price of $17.60. Estimates range from $10.81 to $27.42. FVCB scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. FVCB’s -2.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -21.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy FVCBankcorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FVCB?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.81 -38.6%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $18.33 +4.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $27.42 +55.8%
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What Is FVCB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $10.81 to $27.42

CirclFi's 6 active models place FVCBankcorp, Inc. (FVCB) between $10.81 and $27.42 per share, a spread of 97% of the median. The median of that range — $17.18 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FVCB, against a current price of $17.60.

Low · EPVHigh · Markov DDM
$10.81median $17.18$27.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$10.81
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$27.42
Model agreement2 bullish · 3 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FVCB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is FVCBankcorp, Inc. (FVCB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, FVCBankcorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $17.18, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $17.60. With a median implied return of -2.4% across a split 2–3 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +94.3% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +55.8% (fair value: $27.42), while EPV is the most conservative at -38.6% ($10.81). The spread between these extremes — +94.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About FVCB?

6 of 13 models are currently active for FVCB. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FVCB is $17.18 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FVCB Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, FVCB ranks #249 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

As a financial institution, FVCBankcorp, Inc. operates in a sector where non-performing loan ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating FVCB should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is FVCB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FVCB a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for FVCBankcorp, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, FVCBankcorp, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +94.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FVCB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FVCB's 6 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy FVCBankcorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

PFSBPFS Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.6BBTBeacon Financial CorporationQOC 7.6CHMGChemung Financial CorporationQOC 7.6BSBKBogota Financial Corp.QOC 7.6WSBKWinchester Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.7CBUCommunity Financial System, Inc.QOC 7.5FCBMFirst Carolina Financial Services, Inc.QOC 5.5HBCPHome Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.4LSBKLake Shore Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.1STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: PFSB · BBT · CHMG · BSBK · WSBK · CBU · FCBM · HBCP · LSBK · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FVCB?

7 companies across all industries closest to FVCB’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

PRUPrudential Financial, Inc.QOC 7.6SMTCSemtech CorporationQOC 7.6INTTInTest CorporationQOC 7.6MGEEMGE Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6AERAAI Era Corp.QOC 7.6CWENClearway Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PRU · SMTC · INTT · MGEE · AERA · CWEN · NVDA

Where Does FVCB Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

FVCB is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About FVCBankcorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is FVCBankcorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts FVCBankcorp, Inc. (FVCB)'s intrinsic value at $17.18 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $10.81 to $27.42. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FVCB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.60, 3 of 6 active models suggest FVCB may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $17.18, within 2.4% of the current price of $17.60 — a consensus view that FVCB is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits FVCBankcorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for FVCB?

FVCBankcorp, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FVCB?

CirclFi analyzes FVCB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FVCB?

Of the 6 models currently active on FVCB, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $27.42 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $10.81. CirclFi's published fair value for FVCB is the median of that range, $17.18, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 97% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FVCB a value trap in 2026?

FVCBankcorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, FVCBankcorp, Inc. (FVCB) has a median fair value of $17.18 — within 2.4% of the current price of $17.60 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FVCB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FVCB valuation
  • Financial statements: FVCBankcorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001675644) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FVCB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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