MGM Resorts International (MGM) Fair Value 2026

MGM · Resorts & Casinos ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, MGM Resorts International (MGM) trades at $42.28, versus a $44.56 median fair value across its 10 active models — 5.4% above the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $57.78.

Key Facts

Ticker
MGM
Price
$42.28
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +64.5% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is MGM Resorts International (MGM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, MGM Resorts International (MGM) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $44.56, within 5.4% of the current price of $42.28. Estimates range from $3.99 to $103.18. MGM scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MGM’s +5.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Resorts & Casinos sector median is +5.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MGM Resorts International Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MGM?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($42.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $57.78 +36.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $44.24 +4.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $69.54 +64.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $19.51 -53.8%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 6 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 10 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is MGM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $3.99 to $103.18

CirclFi's 10 active models place MGM Resorts International (MGM) between $3.99 and $103.18 per share, a spread of 223% of the median. The median of that range — $44.56 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MGM, against a current price of $42.28.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$3.99median $44.56$103.18
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$3.99
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$103.18
Model agreement5 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MGM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MGM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is MGM Resorts International (MGM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MGM Resorts International's intrinsic value is estimated at a median $44.56, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $42.28. While the median implied return is +5.4%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +234.6% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $103.18 (+144.0%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $3.99 (-90.6%). This +234.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about MGM Resorts International's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MGM?

10 of 13 models are currently active for MGM. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MGM is $44.56 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $57.78 on its own, implying +36.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MGM Rank in Resorts & Casinos?

Among 18 Resorts & Casinos stocks, MGM ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

MGM Resorts International operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MGM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MGM a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for MGM Resorts International. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, MGM Resorts International's fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +234.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MGM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MGM's 10 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MGM Resorts International Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Resorts & Casinos Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Resorts & Casinos stocks with 13-model coverage

WYNNWynn Resorts, LimitedQOC 7.7HGVHilton Grand Vacations Inc.QOC 7.4BYDBoyd Gaming CorporationQOC 7.8CPHCCanterbury Park Holding CorporationQOC 7.4MTNVail Resorts, Inc.QOC 7.8CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.9MSCStudio City International Holdings LimitedQOC 6.4BALYBally's CorporationQOC 5.5LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp.QOC 8.6TBTCTable Trac, Inc.QOC 9.5MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: WYNN · HGV · BYD · CPHC · MTN · CZR · MSC · BALY · LVS · TBTC · MCRI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MGM?

7 companies across all industries closest to MGM’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

CWENClearway Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6NBRNabors Industries Ltd.QOC 7.6MGEEMGE Energy, Inc.QOC 7.6TOURTuniu CorporationQOC 7.6JLHLJulong Holding LimitedQOC 7.6FVCBFVCBankcorp, Inc.QOC 7.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CWEN · NBR · MGEE · TOUR · JLHL · FVCB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About MGM Resorts International’s Valuation?

What is MGM Resorts International's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts MGM Resorts International (MGM)'s intrinsic value at $44.56 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.99 to $103.18. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $57.78 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MGM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $42.28, 6 of 10 active models suggest MGM may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $44.56, within 5.4% of the current price of $42.28 — a consensus view that MGM is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MGM Resorts International's business model in Resorts & Casinos.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for MGM?

MGM Resorts International's QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MGM?

CirclFi analyzes MGM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MGM?

Of the 10 models currently active on MGM, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $103.18 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $3.99. CirclFi's published fair value for MGM is the median of that range, $44.56, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 223% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MGM a value trap in 2026?

MGM Resorts International's Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, MGM Resorts International (MGM) has a median fair value of $44.56 — within 5.4% of the current price of $42.28 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MGM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MGM valuation
  • Financial statements: MGM Resorts International 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000789570) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MGM as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 10 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on MGM.

Unlock All 10 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

6 models hidden for MGM Unlock All 10 — $39/mo