Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) Fair Value 2026

BYD · Resorts & Casinos ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (15/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) trades at $79.62, versus a $80.06 median fair value across its 11 active models — 0.6% above the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 15/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $13.79.

Key Facts

Ticker
BYD
Price
$79.62
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
15/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +235.2% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $80.06, essentially in line with the current price of $79.62. Estimates range from $13.79 to $266.88. BYD scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 15/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BYD’s +0.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Resorts & Casinos sector median is +5.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Boyd Gaming Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BYD?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($79.62)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.79 -82.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.10 -77.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $83.57 +5.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $266.88 +235.2%
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What Is BYD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $13.79 to $266.88

CirclFi's 11 active models place Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) between $13.79 and $266.88 per share, a spread of 316% of the median. The median of that range — $80.06 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BYD, against a current price of $79.62.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$13.79median $80.06$266.88
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$13.79
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$266.88
Model agreement4 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BYD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BYD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Boyd Gaming Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $80.06, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $79.62. With a median implied return of +0.6% across a split 4–4 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +317.9% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +235.2% (fair value: $266.88), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -82.7% ($13.79). The spread between these extremes — +317.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BYD?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BYD. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BYD is $80.06 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $13.79 on its own, implying -82.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BYD Rank in Resorts & Casinos?

Among 18 Resorts & Casinos stocks, BYD ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

Boyd Gaming Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BYD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BYD a score of 15/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Boyd Gaming Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Boyd Gaming Corporation is rated at 7.8/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +317.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BYD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BYD's 11 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Boyd Gaming Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Resorts & Casinos Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Resorts & Casinos stocks with 13-model coverage

MTNVail Resorts, Inc.QOC 7.8WYNNWynn Resorts, LimitedQOC 7.7RRRRed Rock Resorts, Inc.QOC 8.3MGMMGM Resorts InternationalQOC 7.6LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp.QOC 8.6HGVHilton Grand Vacations Inc.QOC 7.4CPHCCanterbury Park Holding CorporationQOC 7.4VACMarriott Vacations Worldwide CorporationQOC 6.2TBTCTable Trac, Inc.QOC 9.5MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: MTN · WYNN · RRR · MGM · LVS · HGV · CPHC · VAC · TBTC · MCRI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BYD?

7 companies across all industries closest to BYD’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

NPKINPK International Inc.QOC 7.8CBFVCB Financial Services, Inc.QOC 7.8MMacy's, Inc.QOC 7.8MBCMasterBrand, Inc.QOC 7.8PAXPatria Investments LimitedQOC 7.8LWLamb Weston Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NPKI · CBFV · M · MBC · PAX · LW · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Boyd Gaming Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Boyd Gaming Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD)'s intrinsic value at $80.06 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $13.79 to $266.88. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $13.79 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BYD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $79.62, 6 of 11 active models suggest BYD may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $80.06, essentially in line with the current price of $79.62 — a consensus view that BYD is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Boyd Gaming Corporation's business model in Resorts & Casinos.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for BYD?

Boyd Gaming Corporation's QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BYD?

CirclFi analyzes BYD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BYD?

Of the 11 models currently active on BYD, First Chicago is the most bullish at $266.88 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $13.79. CirclFi's published fair value for BYD is the median of that range, $80.06, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 316% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BYD a value trap in 2026?

Boyd Gaming Corporation's Value Trap score is 15/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) has a median fair value of $80.06 — essentially in line with the current price of $79.62 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BYD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BYD valuation
  • Financial statements: Boyd Gaming Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000906553) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BYD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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