Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) Fair Value 2026

BYD · Hotels & Motels ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) trades at $85.73, approximately 9% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $78.69. QOC: 8.4/10. 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BYD
Price
$85.73
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +107.0% upside with 4% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($85.73)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$78.69 -8.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$13.03 -84.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$177.43 +107.0%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$136.85 +59.6%

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What Is Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Boyd Gaming Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $82.43, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $85.73. With an average implied return of -3.9% across a split 6–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +191.8% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, CUCE sees the most upside at +107.0% (fair value: $177.43), while EPV is the most conservative at -84.8% ($13.03). The spread between these extremes — +191.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BYD?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BYD. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BYD's intrinsic value at $78.69, implying -8.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BYD Rank in Hotels & Motels?

Among 28 Hotels & Motels stocks, BYD ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places BYD in the top tier.

Boyd Gaming Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BYD a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for BYD. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Boyd Gaming Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Boyd Gaming Corporation is rated at 8.4/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +191.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BYD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BYD's 11 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Boyd Gaming Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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Frequently Asked Questions About Boyd Gaming Corporation

What is Boyd Gaming Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $78.69. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BYD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $85.73, 6 of 11 active models suggest BYD may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Boyd Gaming Corporation's business model in Hotels & Motels.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for BYD?

Boyd Gaming Corporation's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BYD?

CirclFi analyzes BYD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BYD a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for BYD at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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