Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Fair Value 2026

HGV · Resorts & Casinos ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (29/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) trades at $43.81, versus a $46.32 median fair value across its 9 active models — 5.7% above the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 29/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.54.

Key Facts

Ticker
HGV
Price
$43.81
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
29/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +105.6% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $46.32, within 5.7% of the current price of $43.81. Estimates range from $2.54 to $134.42. HGV scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 29/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HGV’s +5.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Resorts & Casinos sector median is +5.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HGV?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($43.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.54 -94.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $46.32 +5.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $90.07 +105.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $6.08 -86.1%
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What Is HGV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $2.54 to $134.42

CirclFi's 9 active models place Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) between $2.54 and $134.42 per share, a spread of 285% of the median. The median of that range — $46.32 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HGV, against a current price of $43.81.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$2.54median $46.32$134.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$2.54
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$134.42
Model agreement5 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HGV. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HGV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $46.32. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $43.81 (implied upside of +5.7%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 9 bullish models. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +206.8% (fair value: $134.42), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -94.2% ($2.54). The spread between these extremes — +301.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About HGV?

9 of 13 models are currently active for HGV. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HGV is $46.32 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.54 on its own, implying -94.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HGV Rank in Resorts & Casinos?

Among 18 Resorts & Casinos stocks, HGV ranks #9 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HGV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HGV a score of 29/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +301.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HGV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HGV's 9 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Resorts & Casinos Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Resorts & Casinos stocks with 13-model coverage

MGMMGM Resorts InternationalQOC 7.6CPHCCanterbury Park Holding CorporationQOC 7.4WYNNWynn Resorts, LimitedQOC 7.7CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc.QOC 6.9BYDBoyd Gaming CorporationQOC 7.8MSCStudio City International Holdings LimitedQOC 6.4FLLFull House Resorts, Inc.QOC 6.3MLCOMelco Resorts & Entertainment LimitedQOC 2.8RRRRed Rock Resorts, Inc.QOC 8.3TBTCTable Trac, Inc.QOC 9.5MCRIMonarch Casino & Resort, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: MGM · CPHC · WYNN · CZR · BYD · MSC · FLL · MLCO · RRR · TBTC · MCRI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HGV?

7 companies across all industries closest to HGV’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.QOC 7.4AFRMAffirm Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.4CGNTCognyte Software Ltd.QOC 7.4PSOPearson plcQOC 7.4CLBKColumbia Financial, Inc.QOC 7.4SITMSiTime CorporationQOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KTOS · AFRM · CGNT · PSO · CLBK · SITM · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV)'s intrinsic value at $46.32 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.54 to $134.42. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.54 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HGV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $43.81, 5 of 9 active models suggest HGV may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $46.32, within 5.7% of the current price of $43.81 — a consensus view that HGV is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s business model in Resorts & Casinos.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for HGV?

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HGV?

CirclFi analyzes HGV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HGV?

Of the 9 models currently active on HGV, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $134.42 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $2.54. CirclFi's published fair value for HGV is the median of that range, $46.32, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 285% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HGV a value trap in 2026?

Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s Value Trap score is 29/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. (HGV) has a median fair value of $46.32 — within 5.7% of the current price of $43.81 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HGV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HGV valuation
  • Financial statements: Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001674168) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HGV as of ; valuations recomputed .

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