Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) Fair Value 2026

TH · Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps & Other Lodging Places ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) trades at $17.32, approximately 31% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $24.97. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TH
Price
$17.32
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +44.2% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.32)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $24.97 +44.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $10.81 -37.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $10.73 -38.0%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $5.83 -66.3%

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What Is Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Target Hospitality Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $10.25. Trading at its current price of $17.32, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -40.8%. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $24.97 (+44.2%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $1.29 (-92.5%). This +136.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Target Hospitality Corp.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TH?

13 of 13 models are currently active for TH. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TH's intrinsic value at $24.97, implying +44.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TH Rank in Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps & Other Lodging Places?

Among 3 Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps & Other Lodging Places stocks, TH ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

Target Hospitality Corp. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TH a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Target Hospitality Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Target Hospitality Corp. earns a quality score of 6.7/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +136.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TH's 13 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Target Hospitality Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps & Other Lodging Places Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps & Other Lodging Places stocks with 13-model coverage

CVEOCiveo Corporation (Canada)QOC 6.7HGVHilton Grand Vacations Inc.QOC 6.6

Read investment analysis: CVEO · HGV

Frequently Asked Questions About Target Hospitality Corp.

What is Target Hospitality Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $24.97. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.32, 3 of 13 active models suggest TH may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Target Hospitality Corp.'s business model in Hotels, Rooming Houses, Camps & Other Lodging Places.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for TH?

Target Hospitality Corp.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TH?

CirclFi analyzes TH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TH a value trap in 2026?

Target Hospitality Corp.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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