LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) Fair Value 2026

LNZA · Waste Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 4 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) trades at $6.17, versus a $16.30 median fair value across its 4 active models — 164.3% above the current price. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 4/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LNZA
Price
$6.17
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
4/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +282.0% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (4/13) may reduce confidence

Is LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) appears undervalued as of : the median of 4 independent fair value estimates is $16.30, 164.3% above the current price of $6.17. Estimates range from $7.97 to $23.57. LNZA scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. LNZA’s +164.3% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy LanzaTech Global, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LNZA?

4 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.17)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $23.57 +282.0%
Asset-Based · Medium Conviction
 $10.03 +62.5%
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What Is LNZA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 4 independent models · $7.97 to $23.57

CirclFi's 4 active models place LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) between $7.97 and $23.57 per share, a spread of 96% of the median. The median of that range — $16.30 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LNZA, against a current price of $6.17.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · CUCE
$7.97median $16.30$23.57
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$7.97
Most bullish modelCUCE$23.57
Model agreement4 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LNZA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for LanzaTech Global, Inc.. Trading at $6.17 against an estimated intrinsic value of $16.30, 4 of 4 active models flag meaningful upside of +164.3% at the median. The most optimistic model, CUCE, places fair value at $23.57 (+282.0%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $7.97 (+29.1%). This +252.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about LanzaTech Global, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About LNZA?

4 of 13 models are currently active for LNZA. All 4 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for LNZA is $16.30 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LNZA Rank in Waste Management?

Among 25 Waste Management stocks, LNZA ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

LanzaTech Global, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is LNZA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LNZA a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

4 of 13 models are active for LanzaTech Global, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, LanzaTech Global, Inc. is rated at 6.2/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +252.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LNZA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LNZA's 4 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy LanzaTech Global, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Waste Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Waste Management stocks with 13-model coverage

NVRIEnviri CorporationQOC 6.4CDTGCDT Environmental Technology Investment Holdings LimitedQOC 5.9GFLGFL Environmental Inc.QOC 6.5QRHCQuest Resource Holding CorporationQOC 5.8PESIPerma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc.QOC 6.6ABATAmerican Battery Technology CompanyQOC 5.6WASTWaste Energy Corp.QOC 5.2SGLASino Green Land CorporationQOC 4.2WMWaste Management, Inc.QOC 8.0CLHClean Harbors, Inc.QOC 8.9WCNWaste Connections, Inc.QOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: NVRI · CDTG · GFL · QRHC · PESI · ABAT · WAST · SGLA · WM · CLH · WCN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LNZA?

7 companies across all industries closest to LNZA’s Quality of Company score of 6.2/10.

SPIRSpire Global, Inc.QOC 6.2COLDAmericold Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 6.2DXLGDestination XL Group, Inc.QOC 6.2WHFWhiteHorse Finance, Inc.QOC 6.2SARSaratoga Investment Corp.QOC 6.2IHRTiHeartMedia, Inc.QOC 6.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SPIR · COLD · DXLG · WHF · SAR · IHRT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About LanzaTech Global, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is LanzaTech Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA)'s intrinsic value at $16.30 — the median of 4 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $7.97 to $23.57. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LNZA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.17, 4 of 4 active models suggest LNZA may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 4 fair value estimates is $16.30, 164.3% above the current price of $6.17 — a consensus view that LNZA is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits LanzaTech Global, Inc.'s business model in Waste Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for LNZA?

LanzaTech Global, Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LNZA?

CirclFi analyzes LNZA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 4 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LNZA?

Of the 4 models currently active on LNZA, CUCE is the most bullish at $23.57 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $7.97. CirclFi's published fair value for LNZA is the median of that range, $16.30, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 96% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LNZA a value trap in 2026?

LanzaTech Global, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 4-model valuation engine, LanzaTech Global, Inc. (LNZA) has a median fair value of $16.30 — 164.3% above the current price of $6.17 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LNZA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LNZA valuation
  • Financial statements: LanzaTech Global, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001843724) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LNZA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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