Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) Fair Value 2026

BABA · Internet Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) trades at $118.90, versus a $87.50 median fair value across its 11 active models — 26.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $87.50.

Key Facts

Ticker
BABA
Price
$118.90
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +110.9% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $87.50, 26.4% below the current price of $118.90. Estimates range from $12.60 to $250.71. BABA scores 7.7/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BABA’s -26.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Internet Retail sector median is -29.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alibaba Group Holding Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BABA?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($118.90)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $87.50 -26.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $76.00 -36.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $93.96 -21.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $250.71 +110.9%
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What Is BABA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $12.60 to $250.71

CirclFi's 11 active models place Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) between $12.60 and $250.71 per share, a spread of 272% of the median. The median of that range — $87.50 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BABA, against a current price of $118.90.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$12.60median $87.50$250.71
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$12.60
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$250.71
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BABA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BABA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alibaba Group Holding Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $87.50. Trading at $118.90, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -26.4%), as 8 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +110.9% (fair value: $250.71), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -89.4% ($12.60). The spread between these extremes — +200.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About BABA?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BABA. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BABA is $87.50 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $87.50 on its own, implying -26.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BABA Rank in Internet Retail?

Among 43 Internet Retail stocks, BABA ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

The Internet Retail sector introduces analytical considerations specific to software business businesses. For Alibaba Group Holding Limited, metrics like gross margin profile provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BABA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BABA a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Alibaba Group Holding Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alibaba Group Holding Limited scores 7.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +200.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BABA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BABA's 11 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alibaba Group Holding Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Internet Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Internet Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

RVLVRevolve Group, Inc.QOC 7.7JDJD.com, Inc.QOC 7.6CPNGCoupang, Inc.QOC 7.7LITBLightInTheBox Holding Co., Ltd.QOC 7.0ETSYEtsy, Inc.QOC 7.9BZUNBaozun Inc.QOC 7.0SBDSSolo Brands, Inc.QOC 6.0LOGCContextLogic Holdings Inc.QOC 4.7AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.QOC 8.7PDDPDD Holdings Inc.QOC 9.2CHWYChewy, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: RVLV · JD · CPNG · LITB · ETSY · BZUN · SBDS · LOGC · AMZN · PDD · CHWY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BABA?

7 companies across all industries closest to BABA’s Quality of Company score of 7.7/10.

TRPTC Energy CorporationQOC 7.7NENNew England Realty Associates Limited PartnershipQOC 7.7TTITETRA Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.7SUNSunoco LPQOC 7.7NGGNational Grid plcQOC 7.7SBSISouthside Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TRP · NEN · TTI · SUN · NGG · SBSI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alibaba Group Holding Limited’s Valuation?

What is Alibaba Group Holding Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)'s intrinsic value at $87.50 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $12.60 to $250.71. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $87.50 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BABA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $118.90, 2 of 11 active models suggest BABA may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $87.50, 26.4% below the current price of $118.90 — a consensus view that BABA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alibaba Group Holding Limited's business model in Internet Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for BABA?

Alibaba Group Holding Limited's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BABA?

CirclFi analyzes BABA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BABA?

Of the 11 models currently active on BABA, First Chicago is the most bullish at $250.71 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $12.60. CirclFi's published fair value for BABA is the median of that range, $87.50, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 272% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BABA a value trap in 2026?

Alibaba Group Holding Limited's Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has a median fair value of $87.50 — 26.4% below the current price of $118.90 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BABA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BABA valuation
  • Financial statements: Alibaba Group Holding Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001577552) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BABA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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