The First Bancorp, Inc. (FNLC) Fair Value 2026

FNLC · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, The First Bancorp, Inc. (FNLC) trades at $34.76, versus a $30.92 median fair value across its 6 active models — 11.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FNLC
Price
$34.76
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is The First Bancorp, Inc. (FNLC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, The First Bancorp, Inc. (FNLC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $30.92, 11.1% below the current price of $34.76. Estimates range from $18.68 to $33.13. FNLC scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. FNLC’s -11.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The First Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FNLC?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($34.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $30.89 -11.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $29.47 -15.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $18.68 -46.3%
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What Is FNLC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $18.68 to $33.13

CirclFi's 6 active models place The First Bancorp, Inc. (FNLC) between $18.68 and $33.13 per share, a spread of 47% of the median. The median of that range — $30.92 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FNLC, against a current price of $34.76.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$18.68median $30.92$33.13
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$18.68
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$33.13
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FNLC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The First Bancorp, Inc. (FNLC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The First Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $30.92, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $34.76. With 5 out of 6 models flagging downside (-11.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $33.13 (-4.7%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $18.68 (-46.3%). This +41.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about The First Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About FNLC?

6 of 13 models are currently active for FNLC. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for FNLC is $30.92 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FNLC Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, FNLC ranks #262 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

As a banking sector, The First Bancorp, Inc. operates in a sector where loan loss provisions is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating FNLC should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is FNLC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FNLC a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for The First Bancorp, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, The First Bancorp, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +41.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FNLC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FNLC's 6 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The First Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

HAPNHappen, Inc.QOC 7.5MBINMerchants BancorpQOC 7.5INTRInter & Co, Inc.QOC 7.5GOVBGouverneur Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5CBNAChain Bridge Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5TFINTriumph Financial, Inc.QOC 7.5UNIBUniversity Bancorp, Inc.QOC 4.6ITUBItaú Unibanco Holding S.A.QOC 8.4SPFISouth Plains Financial, Inc.QOC 8.0STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: HAPN · MBIN · INTR · GOVB · CBNA · TFIN · UNIB · ITUB · SPFI · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FNLC?

7 companies across all industries closest to FNLC’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

AOMRAngel Oak Mortgage REIT, Inc.QOC 7.5CPSSConsumer Portfolio Services, Inc.QOC 7.5IHSIHS Holding LimitedQOC 7.5STAGSTAG Industrial, Inc.QOC 7.5PPIHPerma-Pipe International Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5LPXLouisiana-Pacific CorporationQOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AOMR · CPSS · IHS · STAG · PPIH · LPX · NVDA

Where Does FNLC Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

FNLC is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About The First Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is The First Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The First Bancorp, Inc. (FNLC)'s intrinsic value at $30.92 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $18.68 to $33.13. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FNLC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $34.76, 0 of 6 active models suggest FNLC may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $30.92, 11.1% below the current price of $34.76 — a consensus view that FNLC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The First Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for FNLC?

The First Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FNLC?

CirclFi analyzes FNLC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FNLC?

Of the 6 models currently active on FNLC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $33.13 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $18.68. CirclFi's published fair value for FNLC is the median of that range, $30.92, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 47% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FNLC a value trap in 2026?

The First Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, The First Bancorp, Inc. (FNLC) has a median fair value of $30.92 — 11.1% below the current price of $34.76 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FNLC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FNLC valuation
  • Financial statements: The First Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000765207) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FNLC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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