Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc. (GOVB) Fair Value 2026

GOVB · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc. (GOVB) trades at $20.40, versus a $13.96 median fair value across its 5 active models — 31.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GOVB
Price
$20.40
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc. (GOVB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc. (GOVB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $13.96, 31.6% below the current price of $20.40. Estimates range from $7.51 to $17.13. GOVB scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GOVB’s -31.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GOVB?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($20.40)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $14.40 -29.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.13 -16.0%
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What Is GOVB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $7.51 to $17.13

CirclFi's 5 active models place Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc. (GOVB) between $7.51 and $17.13 per share, a spread of 69% of the median. The median of that range — $13.96 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GOVB, against a current price of $20.40.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · Markov DDM
$7.51median $13.96$17.13
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$7.51
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$17.13
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GOVB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc. (GOVB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.96. Trading at its current price of $20.40, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -31.6%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $17.13 (-16.0%), versus Regime Cross at $7.51 (-63.2%). This +47.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About GOVB?

5 of 13 models are currently active for GOVB. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for GOVB is $13.96 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GOVB Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, GOVB ranks #262 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc.'s positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that non-performing loan ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including digital banking adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is GOVB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GOVB a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +47.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GOVB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GOVB's 5 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

MBINMerchants BancorpQOC 7.5TFINTriumph Financial, Inc.QOC 7.5FNLCThe First Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5RBBRBB BancorpQOC 7.5HAPNHappen, Inc.QOC 7.5BSRRSierra BancorpQOC 7.4AGBKAGI IncQOC 4.2VABKVirginia National Bankshares CorporationQOC 8.4BANRBanner CorporationQOC 8.0ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: MBIN · TFIN · FNLC · RBB · HAPN · BSRR · AGBK · VABK · BANR · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GOVB?

6 companies across all industries closest to GOVB’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

JRSHJerash Holdings (US), Inc.QOC 7.5ANNAAleAnna, Inc.QOC 7.5EVIEVI Industries, Inc.QOC 7.5ATHMAutohome Inc.QOC 7.5LHAILinkhome Holdings Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: JRSH · ANNA · EVI · ATHM · LHAI · NVDA

Where Does GOVB Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

GOVB is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc. (GOVB)'s intrinsic value at $13.96 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $7.51 to $17.13. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GOVB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $20.40, 0 of 5 active models suggest GOVB may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $13.96, 31.6% below the current price of $20.40 — a consensus view that GOVB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for GOVB?

Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GOVB?

CirclFi analyzes GOVB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GOVB?

Of the 5 models currently active on GOVB, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $17.13 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $7.51. CirclFi's published fair value for GOVB is the median of that range, $13.96, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 69% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GOVB a value trap in 2026?

Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc. (GOVB) has a median fair value of $13.96 — 31.6% below the current price of $20.40 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GOVB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GOVB valuation
  • Financial statements: Gouverneur Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001978811) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GOVB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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