Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) Fair Value 2026

LPX · Building Products & Equipment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) trades at $71.26, versus a $29.71 median fair value across its 12 active models — 58.3% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $13.89.

Key Facts

Ticker
LPX
Price
$71.26
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +31.4% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $29.71, 58.3% below the current price of $71.26. Estimates range from $4.97 to $101.51. LPX scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. LPX’s -58.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Building Products & Equipment sector median is -32.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LPX?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($71.26)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.89 -80.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $54.31 -23.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $35.74 -49.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $93.62 +31.4%
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What Is LPX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $4.97 to $101.51

CirclFi's 12 active models place Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) between $4.97 and $101.51 per share, a spread of 325% of the median. The median of that range — $29.71 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LPX, against a current price of $71.26.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$4.97median $29.71$101.51
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$4.97
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$101.51
Model agreement2 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LPX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LPX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $29.71. Trading at its current price of $71.26, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -58.3%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +42.4% (fair value: $101.51), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -93.0% ($4.97). The spread between these extremes — +135.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LPX?

12 of 13 models are currently active for LPX. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LPX is $29.71 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $13.89 on its own, implying -80.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LPX Rank in Building Products & Equipment?

Among 39 Building Products & Equipment stocks, LPX ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

The Building Products & Equipment sector introduces analytical considerations specific to manufacturing company businesses. For Louisiana-Pacific Corporation, metrics like order backlog depth provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is LPX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LPX a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Louisiana-Pacific Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation earns a quality score of 7.5/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +135.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LPX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LPX's 12 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Building Products & Equipment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Building Products & Equipment stocks with 13-model coverage

PPIHPerma-Pipe International Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5SWIMLatham Group, Inc.QOC 7.4CARRCarrier Global CorporationQOC 7.5APTAlpha Pro Tech, Ltd.QOC 7.4JLHLJulong Holding LimitedQOC 7.6BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc.QOC 7.3JELDJELD-WEN Holding, Inc.QOC 5.8TTTrane Technologies plcQOC 9.4TREXTrex Company, Inc.QOC 8.1LIILennox International Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: PPIH · SWIM · CARR · APT · JLHL · BLDR · JELD · TT · TREX · LII

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LPX?

7 companies across all industries closest to LPX’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

STAGSTAG Industrial, Inc.QOC 7.5ANNAAleAnna, Inc.QOC 7.5CPSSConsumer Portfolio Services, Inc.QOC 7.5TLIHTen-League International Holdings LimitedQOC 7.5FNLCThe First Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5MBINMerchants BancorpQOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: STAG · ANNA · CPSS · TLIH · FNLC · MBIN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Louisiana-Pacific Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)'s intrinsic value at $29.71 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.97 to $101.51. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $13.89 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LPX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $71.26, 2 of 12 active models suggest LPX may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $29.71, 58.3% below the current price of $71.26 — a consensus view that LPX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's business model in Building Products & Equipment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for LPX?

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LPX?

CirclFi analyzes LPX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LPX?

Of the 12 models currently active on LPX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $101.51 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $4.97. CirclFi's published fair value for LPX is the median of that range, $29.71, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 325% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LPX a value trap in 2026?

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) has a median fair value of $29.71 — 58.3% below the current price of $71.26 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LPX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LPX valuation
  • Financial statements: Louisiana-Pacific Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000060519) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LPX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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