Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Fair Value 2026

BLDR · Building Products & Equipment ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (52/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) trades at $67.72, versus a $91.49 median fair value across its 12 active models — 35.1% above the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 52/100 (WARN). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $47.40.

Key Facts

Ticker
BLDR
Price
$67.72
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
52/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +265.1% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 52 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $91.49, 35.1% above the current price of $67.72. Estimates range from $7.47 to $247.23. BLDR scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 52/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BLDR’s +35.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Building Products & Equipment sector median is -32.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Builders FirstSource, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BLDR?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($67.72)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $47.40 -30.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $96.49 +42.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $86.48 +27.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $247.23 +265.1%
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What Is BLDR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $7.47 to $247.23

CirclFi's 12 active models place Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) between $7.47 and $247.23 per share, a spread of 262% of the median. The median of that range — $91.49 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BLDR, against a current price of $67.72.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$7.47median $91.49$247.23
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$7.47
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$247.23
Model agreement8 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BLDR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BLDR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Builders FirstSource, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $91.49. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $67.72 (implied upside of +35.1%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 12 bullish models. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +265.1% (fair value: $247.23), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -89.0% ($7.47). The spread between these extremes — +354.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About BLDR?

12 of 13 models are currently active for BLDR. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BLDR is $91.49 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $47.40 on its own, implying -30.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BLDR Rank in Building Products & Equipment?

Among 39 Building Products & Equipment stocks, BLDR ranks #24 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

Builders FirstSource, Inc.'s positioning within the Building Products & Equipment segment means that organic revenue growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including electrification tailwinds — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BLDR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BLDR a score of 52/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Builders FirstSource, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Builders FirstSource, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.3/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +354.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BLDR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BLDR's 12 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Builders FirstSource, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Building Products & Equipment Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Building Products & Equipment stocks with 13-model coverage

APTAlpha Pro Tech, Ltd.QOC 7.4FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc.QOC 7.3SWIMLatham Group, Inc.QOC 7.4OCOwens CorningQOC 7.2LPXLouisiana-Pacific CorporationQOC 7.5NXQuanex Building Products CorporationQOC 6.8STAIScanTech AI Systems Inc.QOC 5.0AWIArmstrong World Industries, Inc.QOC 9.0JBIJanus International Group, Inc.QOC 7.9TTTrane Technologies plcQOC 9.4LIILennox International Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: APT · FBIN · SWIM · OC · LPX · NX · STAI · AWI · JBI · TT · LII

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BLDR?

7 companies across all industries closest to BLDR’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

CPRICapri Holdings LimitedQOC 7.3CWSTCasella Waste Systems, Inc.QOC 7.3OGNOrganon & Co.QOC 7.3SSTISoundThinking, Inc.QOC 7.3INTAIntapp, Inc.QOC 7.3DTEDTE Energy CompanyQOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CPRI · CWST · OGN · SSTI · INTA · DTE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Builders FirstSource, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Builders FirstSource, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)'s intrinsic value at $91.49 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $7.47 to $247.23. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $47.40 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BLDR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $67.72, 8 of 12 active models suggest BLDR may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $91.49, 35.1% above the current price of $67.72 — a consensus view that BLDR is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Builders FirstSource, Inc.'s business model in Building Products & Equipment.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for BLDR?

Builders FirstSource, Inc.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BLDR?

CirclFi analyzes BLDR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BLDR?

Of the 12 models currently active on BLDR, First Chicago is the most bullish at $247.23 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $7.47. CirclFi's published fair value for BLDR is the median of that range, $91.49, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 262% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BLDR a value trap in 2026?

Builders FirstSource, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 52/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR) has a median fair value of $91.49 — 35.1% above the current price of $67.72 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BLDR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BLDR valuation
  • Financial statements: Builders FirstSource, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001316835) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BLDR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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