The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Fair Value 2026

HD · Home Improvement Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) trades at $328.61, versus a $217.88 median fair value across its 8 active models — 33.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $215.41.

Key Facts

Ticker
HD
Price
$328.61
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $217.88, 33.7% below the current price of $328.61. Estimates range from $70.88 to $485.60. HD scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 24/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HD’s -33.7% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Home Depot, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HD?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($328.61)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $215.41 -34.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $163.02 -50.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $220.34 -32.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $70.88 -78.4%
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What Is HD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $70.88 to $485.60

CirclFi's 8 active models place The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) between $70.88 and $485.60 per share, a spread of 190% of the median. The median of that range — $217.88 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HD, against a current price of $328.61.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$70.88median $217.88$485.60
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$70.88
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$485.60
Model agreement1 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Home Depot, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $217.88. Trading at its current price of $328.61, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -33.7%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $485.60 (+47.8%), versus EROIC at $70.88 (-78.4%). This +126.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HD?

8 of 13 models are currently active for HD. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HD is $217.88 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $215.41 on its own, implying -34.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HD Rank in Home Improvement Retail?

Among 6 Home Improvement Retail stocks, HD ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places HD in the top tier.

The Home Depot, Inc.'s positioning within the Home Improvement Retail segment means that customer lifetime value (CLV) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including omnichannel integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HD a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for The Home Depot, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, The Home Depot, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.3/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +126.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HD's 8 active models, average confidence is 61%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Home Depot, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Home Improvement Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

5 related Home Improvement Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

LOWLowe's Companies, Inc.QOC 8.3FNDFloor & Decor Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0LIVELive Ventures IncorporatedQOC 7.9HVTHaverty Furniture Companies, Inc.QOC 7.7TTSHTile Shop Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2

Read investment analysis: LOW · FND · LIVE · HVT · TTSH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HD?

7 companies across all industries closest to HD’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LPQOC 8.3PSTLPostal Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 8.3FSBCFive Star BancorpQOC 8.3OPRAOpera LimitedQOC 8.3DCOMDime Commercial Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.3OOMAOoma, Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WLKP · PSTL · FSBC · OPRA · DCOM · OOMA · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Home Depot, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is The Home Depot, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Home Depot, Inc. (HD)'s intrinsic value at $217.88 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $70.88 to $485.60. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $215.41 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $328.61, 2 of 8 active models suggest HD may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $217.88, 33.7% below the current price of $328.61 — a consensus view that HD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Home Depot, Inc.'s business model in Home Improvement Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for HD?

The Home Depot, Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HD?

CirclFi analyzes HD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HD?

Of the 8 models currently active on HD, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $485.60 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $70.88. CirclFi's published fair value for HD is the median of that range, $217.88, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 190% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HD a value trap in 2026?

The Home Depot, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) has a median fair value of $217.88 — 33.7% below the current price of $328.61 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HD valuation
  • Financial statements: The Home Depot, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000354950) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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