What Is Home Depot, Inc. (The) (HD) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Home Depot, Inc. (The)'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $237.55. Trading at $337.11, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -29.5%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $365.66 (+8.5%), versus EROIC at $54.95 (-83.7%). This +92.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About HD?
12 of 13 models are currently active for HD. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HD's intrinsic value at $287.98, implying -14.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does HD Rank in Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers?
Among 5 Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers stocks, HD ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places HD in the top tier.
Home Depot, Inc. (The)'s positioning within the Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers segment means that customer lifetime value (CLV) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including omnichannel integration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is HD a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HD a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Home Depot, Inc. (The). Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Home Depot, Inc. (The) earns a quality score of 8.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +92.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every HD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across HD's 12 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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