Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) Fair Value 2026

LOW · Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) trades at $207.69, approximately 7% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $193.87. QOC: 9.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LOW
Price
$207.69
Quality Score
9.1/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +24.4% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($207.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$193.87 -6.7%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$106.00 -49.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$200.76 -3.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$258.34 +24.4%

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What Is Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lowe's Companies, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $207.69. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $192.19 (-7.5% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $320.67 (+54.4%), versus EROIC at $24.79 (-88.1%). This +142.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About LOW?

11 of 13 models are currently active for LOW. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates LOW's intrinsic value at $193.87, implying -6.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LOW Rank in Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers?

Among 5 Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers stocks, LOW ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.1 places LOW in the top tier.

The Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer-facing company businesses. For Lowe's Companies, Inc., metrics like e-commerce penetration rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is LOW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LOW a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Lowe's Companies, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Lowe's Companies, Inc. earns a quality score of 9.1/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +142.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LOW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LOW's 11 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Lowe's Companies, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: HD · BLDR · FND · JCTC

Frequently Asked Questions About Lowe's Companies, Inc.

What is Lowe's Companies, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $193.87. The Quality of Company score is 9.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LOW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $207.69, 5 of 11 active models suggest LOW may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Lowe's Companies, Inc.'s business model in Retail-Lumber & Other Building Materials Dealers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.1 mean for LOW?

Lowe's Companies, Inc.'s QOC of 9.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LOW?

CirclFi analyzes LOW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is LOW a value trap in 2026?

Lowe's Companies, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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