TransAlta Corporation (TAC) Fair Value 2026

TAC · Utilities - Independent Power Producers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, TransAlta Corporation (TAC) trades at $13.12, versus a $9.38 median fair value across its 9 active models — 28.5% below the current price. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $7.75.

Key Facts

Ticker
TAC
Price
$13.12
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is TransAlta Corporation (TAC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, TransAlta Corporation (TAC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $9.38, 28.5% below the current price of $13.12. Estimates range from $1.46 to $25.42. TAC scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. TAC’s -28.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy TransAlta Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TAC?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.12)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.75 -40.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.34 -74.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $9.38 -28.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.99 -84.8%
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What Is TAC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $1.46 to $25.42

CirclFi's 9 active models place TransAlta Corporation (TAC) between $1.46 and $25.42 per share, a spread of 256% of the median. The median of that range — $9.38 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TAC, against a current price of $13.12.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$1.46median $9.38$25.42
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$1.46
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$25.42
Model agreement4 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TAC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TAC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is TransAlta Corporation (TAC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TransAlta Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $9.38. Trading at $13.12, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -28.5%), as 5 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $25.42 (+93.7%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $1.46 (-88.9%). This +182.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about TransAlta Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TAC?

9 of 13 models are currently active for TAC. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TAC is $9.38 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $7.75 on its own, implying -40.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TAC Rank in Utilities - Independent Power Producers?

Among 10 Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, TAC ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

TransAlta Corporation's positioning within the Utilities - Independent Power Producers segment means that rate base growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including grid modernization spending — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TAC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TAC a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for TransAlta Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TransAlta Corporation scores 6.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +182.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TAC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TAC's 9 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TransAlta Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Independent Power Producers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks with 13-model coverage

HNRGHallador Energy CompanyQOC 8.4CEGConstellation Energy CorporationQOC 7.9VSTVistra Corp.QOC 7.6NRGNRG Energy, Inc.QOC 7.2DGXXDigi Power X Inc.QOC 6.0TLNTalen Energy CorporationQOC 5.6OKLOOklo Inc.QOC 5.2ONENONE Nuclear Energy Inc.QOC 5.1KENKenon Holdings Ltd.QOC 2.0

Read investment analysis: HNRG · CEG · VST · NRG · DGXX · TLN · OKLO · ONEN · KEN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TAC?

7 companies across all industries closest to TAC’s Quality of Company score of 6.2/10.

CODICompass DiversifiedQOC 6.2PPHCPublic Policy Holding Company, Inc.QOC 6.2OFIXOrthofix Medical Inc.QOC 6.2NLOPNet Lease Office PropertiesQOC 6.2MLSSMilestone Scientific Inc.QOC 6.2GLDGGoldMining Inc.QOC 6.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CODI · PPHC · OFIX · NLOP · MLSS · GLDG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About TransAlta Corporation’s Valuation?

What is TransAlta Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts TransAlta Corporation (TAC)'s intrinsic value at $9.38 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $1.46 to $25.42. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $7.75 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TAC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.12, 4 of 9 active models suggest TAC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $9.38, 28.5% below the current price of $13.12 — a consensus view that TAC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TransAlta Corporation's business model in Utilities - Independent Power Producers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for TAC?

TransAlta Corporation's QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TAC?

CirclFi analyzes TAC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TAC?

Of the 9 models currently active on TAC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $25.42 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $1.46. CirclFi's published fair value for TAC is the median of that range, $9.38, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 256% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TAC a value trap in 2026?

TransAlta Corporation's Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, TransAlta Corporation (TAC) has a median fair value of $9.38 — 28.5% below the current price of $13.12 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TAC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TAC valuation
  • Financial statements: TransAlta Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001144800) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TAC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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