What Is TransAlta Corporation (TAC) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TransAlta Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $14.79, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $13.92. While the average implied return is +6.2%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +237.5% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $38.60 (+177.3%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $5.55 (-60.2%). This +237.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about TransAlta Corporation's intrinsic worth.
What Do the Models Say About TAC?
12 of 13 models are currently active for TAC. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TAC's intrinsic value at $9.44, implying -32.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does TAC Rank in Electric Services?
Among 70 Electric Services stocks, TAC ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places TAC in the top tier.
See all Most Undervalued Electric Services Stocks →
TransAlta Corporation's positioning within the Electric Services segment means that rate base growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including grid modernization spending — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is TAC a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TAC a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for TransAlta Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, TransAlta Corporation scores 8.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +237.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every TAC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across TAC's 12 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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