Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) Fair Value 2026

MBLY · Auto Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) trades at $7.47, versus a $7.96 median fair value across its 5 active models — 6.6% above the current price. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $8.70.

Key Facts

Ticker
MBLY
Price
$7.47
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +16.4% upside with 65% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $7.96, within 6.6% of the current price of $7.47. Estimates range from $7.02 to $9.61. MBLY scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. MBLY’s +6.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Auto Parts sector median is -9.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mobileye Global Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MBLY?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.47)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.70 +16.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $7.96 +6.6%
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What Is MBLY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $7.02 to $9.61

CirclFi's 5 active models place Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) between $7.02 and $9.61 per share, a spread of 32% of the median. The median of that range — $7.96 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MBLY, against a current price of $7.47.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · FTNN
$7.02median $7.96$9.61
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$7.02
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$9.61
Model agreement3 bullish · 1 bearishtight

The methods largely agree on MBLY. A band this narrow usually means stable, predictable cash flows that every approach reads the same way, and it is the strongest form of confirmation this engine can produce.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MBLY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mobileye Global Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $7.96, suggesting a +6.6% median upside from the current price of $7.47. While 3 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 1 model flags potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $9.61 (+28.6%), versus RCMH-DCF at $7.02 (-6.0%). This +34.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About MBLY?

5 of 13 models are currently active for MBLY. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MBLY is $7.96 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $8.70 on its own, implying +16.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MBLY Rank in Auto Parts?

Among 58 Auto Parts stocks, MBLY ranks #37 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Auto Parts Stocks →

The Auto Parts sector introduces analytical considerations specific to transportation company businesses. For Mobileye Global Inc., metrics like EBIT per unit provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MBLY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MBLY a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Mobileye Global Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mobileye Global Inc. scores 6.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +34.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MBLY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MBLY's 5 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mobileye Global Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

FOXFFox Factory Holding Corp.QOC 6.6SLDPSolid Power, Inc.QOC 6.6CPSCooper-Standard Holdings Inc.QOC 6.8AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc.QOC 6.4SRIStoneridge, Inc.QOC 6.9SCTHSecureTech Innovations, Inc.QOC 6.3VGNTVersigent PLCQOC 5.4GNTXGentex CorporationQOC 8.5LKQLKQ CorporationQOC 7.9ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: FOXF · SLDP · CPS · AAP · SRI · SCTH · VGNT · GNTX · LKQ · ALSN · ALV

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MBLY?

6 companies across all industries closest to MBLY’s Quality of Company score of 6.6/10.

WVEWave Life Sciences, Inc.QOC 6.6RYAMRayonier Advanced Materials Inc.QOC 6.6SDRLSeadrill LimitedQOC 6.6HTZHertz Global Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.QOC 6.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WVE · RYAM · SDRL · HTZ · AAOI · NVDA

Where Does MBLY Sit in CirclFi's Auto Parts Rankings?

MBLY is ranked against every other Auto Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Auto Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mobileye Global Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Mobileye Global Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY)'s intrinsic value at $7.96 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $7.02 to $9.61. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $8.70 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MBLY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.47, 3 of 5 active models suggest MBLY may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $7.96, within 6.6% of the current price of $7.47 — a consensus view that MBLY is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mobileye Global Inc.'s business model in Auto Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for MBLY?

Mobileye Global Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MBLY?

CirclFi analyzes MBLY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MBLY?

Of the 5 models currently active on MBLY, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $9.61 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $7.02. CirclFi's published fair value for MBLY is the median of that range, $7.96, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 32% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MBLY a value trap in 2026?

Mobileye Global Inc.'s Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) has a median fair value of $7.96 — within 6.6% of the current price of $7.47 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MBLY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MBLY valuation
  • Financial statements: Mobileye Global Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001910139) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MBLY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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