Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS) Fair Value 2026

EBS · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (34/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS) trades at $5.91, versus a $15.13 median fair value across its 9 active models — 156.0% above the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 34/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $4.48.

Key Facts

Ticker
EBS
Price
$5.91
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
34/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +158.3% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $15.13, 156.0% above the current price of $5.91. Estimates range from $0.95 to $30.07. EBS scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 34/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. EBS’s +156.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -8.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Emergent BioSolutions Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EBS?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.91)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.48 -24.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $15.26 +158.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.51 +77.8%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $9.53 +61.2%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 5 additional models including Markov DDM, PWERM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 9 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is EBS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.95 to $30.07

CirclFi's 9 active models place Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS) between $0.95 and $30.07 per share, a spread of 193% of the median. The median of that range — $15.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for EBS, against a current price of $5.91.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Sentiment SOTP
$0.95median $15.13$30.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$0.95
Most bullish modelSentiment SOTP$30.07
Model agreement7 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for EBS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on EBS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Emergent BioSolutions Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $5.91. Based on our 13-model framework, Emergent BioSolutions Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $15.13 — representing +156.0% implied upside — with 7 out of 9 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Sentiment SOTP targets $30.07 (+408.8%), versus Markov DDM at $0.95 (-84.0%). This +492.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About EBS?

9 of 13 models are currently active for EBS. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for EBS is $15.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $4.48 on its own, implying -24.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EBS Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 112 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, EBS ranks #30 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

Emergent BioSolutions Inc.'s positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic segment means that R&D productivity ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including late-stage pipeline catalysts — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is EBS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EBS a score of 34/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Emergent BioSolutions Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Emergent BioSolutions Inc. scores 7.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +492.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EBS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EBS's 9 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Emergent BioSolutions Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

IRWDIronwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.1LQDALiquidia CorporationQOC 7.0ETONEton Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2TAKTakeda Pharmaceutical Company LimitedQOC 7.0INDVIndivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2HROWHarrow, Inc.QOC 7.0CABRCaring Brands, Inc.QOC 6.0PLNHPlanet 13 Holdings Inc.QOC 4.7AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: IRWD · LQDA · ETON · TAK · INDV · HROW · CABR · PLNH · AMPH · UTHR

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EBS?

7 companies across all industries closest to EBS’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

RSKDRiskified Ltd.QOC 7.1EPMEvolution Petroleum CorporationQOC 7.1SEDGSolarEdge Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.1SWXSouthwest Gas Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1DNOWDNOW Inc.QOC 7.1MCSThe Marcus CorporationQOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RSKD · EPM · SEDG · SWX · DNOW · MCS · NVDA

Where Does EBS Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

EBS is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Emergent BioSolutions Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Emergent BioSolutions Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS)'s intrinsic value at $15.13 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.95 to $30.07. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $4.48 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EBS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.91, 7 of 9 active models suggest EBS may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $15.13, 156.0% above the current price of $5.91 — a consensus view that EBS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Emergent BioSolutions Inc.'s business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for EBS?

Emergent BioSolutions Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EBS?

CirclFi analyzes EBS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on EBS?

Of the 9 models currently active on EBS, Sentiment SOTP is the most bullish at $30.07 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $0.95. CirclFi's published fair value for EBS is the median of that range, $15.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 193% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is EBS a value trap in 2026?

Emergent BioSolutions Inc.'s Value Trap score is 34/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS) has a median fair value of $15.13 — 156.0% above the current price of $5.91 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EBS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EBS valuation
  • Financial statements: Emergent BioSolutions Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001367644) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for EBS as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 9 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on EBS.

Unlock All 9 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

5 models hidden for EBS Unlock All 9 — $39/mo