Morgan Stanley (MS) Fair Value 2026

MS · Capital Markets ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Morgan Stanley (MS) trades at $214.77, versus a $132.85 median fair value across its 5 active models — 38.1% below the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MS
Price
$214.77
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Morgan Stanley (MS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Morgan Stanley (MS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $132.85, 38.1% below the current price of $214.77. Estimates range from $114.23 to $197.01. MS scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MS’s -38.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Capital Markets sector median is -32.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Morgan Stanley Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MS?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($214.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $132.85 -38.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $114.23 -46.8%
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What Is MS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $114.23 to $197.01

CirclFi's 5 active models place Morgan Stanley (MS) between $114.23 and $197.01 per share, a spread of 62% of the median. The median of that range — $132.85 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MS, against a current price of $214.77.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$114.23median $132.85$197.01
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$114.23
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$197.01
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Morgan Stanley (MS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Morgan Stanley's intrinsic value is estimated at $132.85. Trading at its current price of $214.77, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -38.1%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -8.3% (fair value: $197.01), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -46.8% ($114.23). The spread between these extremes — +38.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About MS?

5 of 13 models are currently active for MS. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for MS is $132.85 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MS Rank in Capital Markets?

Among 103 Capital Markets stocks, MS ranks #31 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Capital Markets Stocks →

The Capital Markets sector introduces analytical considerations specific to financial institution businesses. For Morgan Stanley, metrics like cost-to-income ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MS a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Morgan Stanley. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Morgan Stanley scores 7.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +38.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MS's 5 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Morgan Stanley Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Capital Markets Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Capital Markets stocks with 13-model coverage

NMRNomura Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1JEFJefferies Financial Group Inc.QOC 7.0HGBLHeritage Global Inc.QOC 7.3MIAXMiami International Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9GSThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.QOC 7.4CANGCango Inc.QOC 6.8SRLScully Royalty Ltd.QOC 5.7NCPLNetcapital Inc.QOC 4.4PIPRPiper Sandler CompaniesQOC 9.1FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: NMR · JEF · HGBL · MIAX · GS · CANG · SRL · NCPL · PIPR · FUTU · HOOD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MS?

6 companies across all industries closest to MS’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

MTHMeritage Homes CorporationQOC 7.1OGEOGE Energy Corp.QOC 7.1ASTHAstrana Health, Inc.QOC 7.1DINDine Brands Global, Inc.QOC 7.1DNOWDNOW Inc.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MTH · OGE · ASTH · DIN · DNOW · NVDA

Where Does MS Sit in CirclFi's Capital Markets Rankings?

MS is ranked against every other Capital Markets stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Capital Markets stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Morgan Stanley’s Valuation?

What is Morgan Stanley's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Morgan Stanley (MS)'s intrinsic value at $132.85 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $114.23 to $197.01. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $214.77, 0 of 5 active models suggest MS may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $132.85, 38.1% below the current price of $214.77 — a consensus view that MS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Morgan Stanley's business model in Capital Markets.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for MS?

Morgan Stanley's QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MS?

CirclFi analyzes MS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MS?

Of the 5 models currently active on MS, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $197.01 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $114.23. CirclFi's published fair value for MS is the median of that range, $132.85, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 62% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MS a value trap in 2026?

Morgan Stanley's Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Morgan Stanley (MS) has a median fair value of $132.85 — 38.1% below the current price of $214.77 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MS valuation
  • Financial statements: Morgan Stanley 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000895421) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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