Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) Fair Value 2026

TAK · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) trades at $18.10, versus a $21.71 median fair value across its 10 active models — 20.0% above the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $67.83.

Key Facts

Ticker
TAK
Price
$18.10
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +274.7% upside with 74% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $21.71, 20.0% above the current price of $18.10. Estimates range from $0.33 to $67.83. TAK scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. TAK’s +20.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic sector median is -0.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TAK?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($18.10)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $67.83 +274.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.35 -48.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $32.84 +81.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $21.30 +17.7%
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What Is TAK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $0.33 to $67.83

CirclFi's 10 active models place Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) between $0.33 and $67.83 per share, a spread of 311% of the median. The median of that range — $21.71 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TAK, against a current price of $18.10.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$0.33median $21.71$67.83
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.33
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$67.83
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TAK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TAK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at $21.71, suggesting a +20.0% median upside from the current price of $18.10. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $67.83 (+274.7%), versus ML-RIV at $0.33 (-98.2%). This +372.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TAK?

10 of 13 models are currently active for TAK. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TAK is $21.71 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $67.83 on its own, implying +274.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TAK Rank in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic?

Among 110 Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, TAK ranks #32 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks →

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited's positioning within the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic segment means that FDA approval probability plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including regulatory pathway clarity — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TAK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TAK a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited scores 7.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +372.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TAK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TAK's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks with 13-model coverage

LQDALiquidia CorporationQOC 7.0HROWHarrow, Inc.QOC 6.9EBSEmergent BioSolutions Inc.QOC 7.1BHCBausch Health Companies Inc.QOC 6.8IRWDIronwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.1TEVATeva Pharmaceutical Industries LimitedQOC 6.8CABRCaring Brands, Inc.QOC 6.0CPMDCannaPharmaRX, Inc.QOC 4.6LNTHLantheus Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.3UTHRUnited Therapeutics CorporationQOC 9.6AMPHAmphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.4

Read investment analysis: LQDA · HROW · EBS · BHC · IRWD · TEVA · CABR · CPMD · LNTH · UTHR · AMPH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TAK?

7 companies across all industries closest to TAK’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

OWLBlue Owl Capital Inc.QOC 7.0BRIABrilliA IncQOC 7.0ARWArrow Electronics, Inc.QOC 7.0VMRKVivmark ResidentialQOC 7.0HKDAMTD Digital Inc.QOC 7.0VFCV.F. CorporationQOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OWL · BRIA · ARW · VMRK · HKD · VFC · NVDA

Where Does TAK Sit in CirclFi's Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic Rankings?

TAK is ranked against every other Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited’s Valuation?

What is Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK)'s intrinsic value at $21.71 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.33 to $67.83. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $67.83 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TAK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $18.10, 6 of 10 active models suggest TAK may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $21.71, 20.0% above the current price of $18.10 — a consensus view that TAK is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited's business model in Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for TAK?

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited's QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TAK?

CirclFi analyzes TAK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TAK?

Of the 10 models currently active on TAK, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $67.83 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.33. CirclFi's published fair value for TAK is the median of that range, $21.71, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 311% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TAK a value trap in 2026?

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) has a median fair value of $21.71 — 20.0% above the current price of $18.10 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TAK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TAK valuation

Market data for TAK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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