Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) Fair Value 2026

ALV · Auto Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) trades at $122.92, versus a $116.71 median fair value across its 11 active models — 5.1% below the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $116.71.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALV
Price
$122.92
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +141.8% upside with 64% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $116.71, within 5.1% of the current price of $122.92. Estimates range from $46.13 to $297.28. ALV scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ALV’s -5.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Auto Parts sector median is -16.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Autoliv, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALV?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($122.92)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $116.71 -5.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $46.13 -62.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $119.13 -3.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $297.28 +141.8%
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What Is ALV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $46.13 to $297.28

CirclFi's 11 active models place Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) between $46.13 and $297.28 per share, a spread of 215% of the median. The median of that range — $116.71 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALV, against a current price of $122.92.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$46.13median $116.71$297.28
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$46.13
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$297.28
Model agreement4 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALV. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Autoliv, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $122.92. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $116.71 (-5.1% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 4 bullish models and 6 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $297.28 (+141.8%), versus EPV at $46.13 (-62.5%). This +204.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ALV?

11 of 13 models are currently active for ALV. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ALV is $116.71 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $116.71 on its own, implying -5.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALV Rank in Auto Parts?

Among 55 Auto Parts stocks, ALV ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places ALV in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Auto Parts Stocks →

Within the Auto Parts space, Autoliv, Inc. competes in an environment where units delivered often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ALV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALV a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Autoliv, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Autoliv, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.0/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +204.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALV's 11 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Autoliv, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Auto Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

ALSNAllison Transmission Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1XPELXPEL, Inc.QOC 9.0FRSXForesight Autonomous Holdings Ltd.QOC 2.3LEALear CorporationQOC 8.7WPRTWestport Fuel Systems Inc.QOC 2.7DORMDorman Products, Inc.QOC 8.6AZOAutoZone, Inc.QOC 8.3ADNTAdient plcQOC 7.3PRTSCarParts.com, Inc.QOC 6.0

Read investment analysis: ALSN · XPEL · FRSX · LEA · WPRT · DORM · AZO · ADNT · PRTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALV?

7 companies across all industries closest to ALV’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

AWIArmstrong World Industries, Inc.QOC 9.0VMIValmont Industries, Inc.QOC 9.0ANIPANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.0AGXArgan, Inc.QOC 9.0AOSA. O. Smith CorporationQOC 9.0DOCNDigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AWI · VMI · ANIP · AGX · AOS · DOCN · NVDA

Where Does ALV Sit in CirclFi's Auto Parts Rankings?

ALV is ranked against every other Auto Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Auto Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Autoliv, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Autoliv, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Autoliv, Inc. (ALV)'s intrinsic value at $116.71 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $46.13 to $297.28. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $116.71 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $122.92, 4 of 11 active models suggest ALV may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $116.71, within 5.1% of the current price of $122.92 — a consensus view that ALV is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Autoliv, Inc.'s business model in Auto Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for ALV?

Autoliv, Inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALV?

CirclFi analyzes ALV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALV?

Of the 11 models currently active on ALV, First Chicago is the most bullish at $297.28 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $46.13. CirclFi's published fair value for ALV is the median of that range, $116.71, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 215% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALV a value trap in 2026?

Autoliv, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) has a median fair value of $116.71 — within 5.1% of the current price of $122.92 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALV valuation
  • Financial statements: Autoliv, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001034670) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALV as of ; valuations recomputed .

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