Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Fair Value 2026

HAYW · Electrical Equipment & Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) trades at $12.31, versus a $13.57 median fair value across its 11 active models — 10.2% above the current price. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $15.84.

Key Facts

Ticker
HAYW
Price
$12.31
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +170.3% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $13.57, 10.2% above the current price of $12.31. Estimates range from $4.56 to $36.72. HAYW scores 9.0/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. HAYW’s +10.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Electrical Equipment & Parts sector median is -30.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hayward Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HAYW?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.31)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.84 +28.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.56 -62.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $13.57 +10.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $33.28 +170.3%
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What Is HAYW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $4.56 to $36.72

CirclFi's 11 active models place Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) between $4.56 and $36.72 per share, a spread of 237% of the median. The median of that range — $13.57 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HAYW, against a current price of $12.31.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$4.56median $13.57$36.72
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$4.56
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$36.72
Model agreement6 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HAYW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HAYW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hayward Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.57, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $12.31. With a median implied return of +10.2% across a split 6–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +261.3% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +198.3% (fair value: $36.72), while EPV is the most conservative at -62.9% ($4.56). The spread between these extremes — +261.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About HAYW?

11 of 13 models are currently active for HAYW. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HAYW is $13.57 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $15.84 on its own, implying +28.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HAYW Rank in Electrical Equipment & Parts?

Among 58 Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks, HAYW ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places HAYW in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Electrical Equipment & Parts Stocks →

As a regulated utility, Hayward Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where payout ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating HAYW should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is HAYW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HAYW a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Hayward Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Hayward Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.0/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +261.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HAYW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HAYW's 11 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hayward Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electrical Equipment & Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

HUBBHubbell IncorporatedQOC 9.1AYIAcuity Inc.QOC 8.8ESPEspey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.QOC 9.2ENSEnerSysQOC 8.8VRTVertiv Holdings CoQOC 9.2NVTnVent Electric plcQOC 8.7EOSEEos Energy Enterprises, Inc.QOC 6.6LNKSLinkers Industries LimitedQOC 5.3WBXWallbox N.V.QOC 4.4POWLPowell Industries, Inc.QOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: HUBB · AYI · ESP · ENS · VRT · NVT · EOSE · LNKS · WBX · POWL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HAYW?

7 companies across all industries closest to HAYW’s Quality of Company score of 9.0/10.

SNASnap-on IncorporatedQOC 9.0AOSA. O. Smith CorporationQOC 9.0EXPEExpedia Group, Inc.QOC 9.0AWIArmstrong World Industries, Inc.QOC 9.0SCHWThe Charles Schwab CorporationQOC 9.0ALVAutoliv, Inc.QOC 9.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SNA · AOS · EXPE · AWI · SCHW · ALV · NVDA

Where Does HAYW Sit in CirclFi's Electrical Equipment & Parts Rankings?

HAYW is ranked against every other Electrical Equipment & Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hayward Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Hayward Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW)'s intrinsic value at $13.57 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $4.56 to $36.72. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $15.84 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HAYW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.31, 6 of 11 active models suggest HAYW may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $13.57, 10.2% above the current price of $12.31 — a consensus view that HAYW is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hayward Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Electrical Equipment & Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for HAYW?

Hayward Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HAYW?

CirclFi analyzes HAYW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HAYW?

Of the 11 models currently active on HAYW, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $36.72 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $4.56. CirclFi's published fair value for HAYW is the median of that range, $13.57, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 237% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HAYW a value trap in 2026?

Hayward Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) has a median fair value of $13.57 — 10.2% above the current price of $12.31 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HAYW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HAYW valuation
  • Financial statements: Hayward Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001834622) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HAYW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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