What Is Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hayward Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $10.33, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $15.58. With 9 out of 12 models flagging downside (-33.7% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +26.5% (fair value: $19.71), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -85.7% ($2.22). The spread between these extremes — +112.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV, Markov DDM lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About HAYW?
12 of 13 models are currently active for HAYW. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HAYW's intrinsic value at $8.98, implying -42.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does HAYW Rank in Refrigeration & Service Industry Machinery?
Among 5 Refrigeration & Service Industry Machinery stocks, HAYW ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.8 places HAYW in the top tier.
As a manufacturing company, Hayward Holdings, Inc. operates in a sector where margin expansion trajectory is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating HAYW should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.
Is HAYW a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HAYW a score of 20/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Hayward Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Hayward Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 9.8/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +112.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every HAYW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across HAYW's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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