Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. (ESP) Fair Value 2026

ESP · Electrical Equipment & Parts ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. (ESP) trades at $62.30, versus a $57.68 median fair value across its 12 active models — 7.4% below the current price. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $67.46.

Key Facts

Ticker
ESP
Price
$62.30
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +40.4% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. (ESP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. (ESP) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $57.68, within 7.4% of the current price of $62.30. Estimates range from $10.04 to $137.19. ESP scores 9.2/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ESP’s -7.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Electrical Equipment & Parts sector median is -30.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ESP?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($62.30)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $67.46 +8.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.47 -57.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $55.38 -11.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $87.47 +40.4%
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What Is ESP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $10.04 to $137.19

CirclFi's 12 active models place Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. (ESP) between $10.04 and $137.19 per share, a spread of 220% of the median. The median of that range — $57.68 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ESP, against a current price of $62.30.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$10.04median $57.68$137.19
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$10.04
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$137.19
Model agreement5 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ESP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ESP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. (ESP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $57.68, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $62.30. With a median implied return of -7.4% across a split 5–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +204.1% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +120.2% (fair value: $137.19), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -83.9% ($10.04). The spread between these extremes — +204.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ESP?

12 of 13 models are currently active for ESP. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ESP is $57.68 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $67.46 on its own, implying +8.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ESP Rank in Electrical Equipment & Parts?

Among 58 Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks, ESP ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places ESP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Electrical Equipment & Parts Stocks →

Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.'s positioning within the Electrical Equipment & Parts segment means that regulatory lag plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including constructive regulatory environment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ESP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ESP a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. scores 9.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +204.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ESP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ESP's 12 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electrical Equipment & Parts Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks with 13-model coverage

VRTVertiv Holdings CoQOC 9.2HUBBHubbell IncorporatedQOC 9.1POWLPowell Industries, Inc.QOC 9.6HAYWHayward Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.0RAYAErayak Power Solution Group Inc.QOC 1.7AYIAcuity Inc.QOC 8.8ULBIUltralife CorporationQOC 7.0PLUGPlug Power Inc.QOC 5.4DFLIDragonfly Energy Holdings Corp.QOC 4.5

Read investment analysis: VRT · HUBB · POWL · HAYW · RAYA · AYI · ULBI · PLUG · DFLI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ESP?

7 companies across all industries closest to ESP’s Quality of Company score of 9.2/10.

RELXRELX PLCQOC 9.2TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedQOC 9.1WHDCactus, Inc.QOC 9.2BKEThe Buckle, Inc.QOC 9.1FTDRFrontdoor, Inc.QOC 9.2SPOTSpotify Technology S.A.QOC 9.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RELX · TSM · WHD · BKE · FTDR · SPOT · NVDA

Where Does ESP Sit in CirclFi's Electrical Equipment & Parts Rankings?

ESP is ranked against every other Electrical Equipment & Parts stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.’s Valuation?

What is Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. (ESP)'s intrinsic value at $57.68 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $10.04 to $137.19. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $67.46 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ESP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $62.30, 5 of 12 active models suggest ESP may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $57.68, within 7.4% of the current price of $62.30 — a consensus view that ESP is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.'s business model in Electrical Equipment & Parts.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for ESP?

Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.'s QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ESP?

CirclFi analyzes ESP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ESP?

Of the 12 models currently active on ESP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $137.19 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $10.04. CirclFi's published fair value for ESP is the median of that range, $57.68, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 220% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ESP a value trap in 2026?

Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. (ESP) has a median fair value of $57.68 — within 7.4% of the current price of $62.30 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ESP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ESP valuation
  • Financial statements: Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000033533) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ESP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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