Neonode Inc. (NEON) Fair Value 2026

NEON · Electronic Components, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (43/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Neonode Inc. (NEON) trades at $0.82, approximately 81% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $4.38. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 43/100 (WARN). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NEON
Price
$0.82
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
43/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +485.2% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 43 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Valuation Matrix

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.82)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$4.38 +430.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$4.83 +485.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$2.52 +205.9%

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What Is Neonode Inc. (NEON) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Neonode Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $2.71. At a current market price of $0.82, 7 of 7 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting an average implied return of +228.9%. Notably, CUCE sees the most upside at +485.2% (fair value: $4.83), while PWERM is the most conservative at +35.9% ($1.12). The spread between these extremes — +449.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NEON?

7 of 13 models are currently active for NEON. All 7 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates NEON's intrinsic value at $4.38, implying +430.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NEON Rank in Electronic Components, NEC?

Among 12 Electronic Components, NEC stocks, NEON ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

Neonode Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NEON a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NEON a score of 43/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Neonode Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Neonode Inc. scores 7.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +449.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NEON valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NEON's 7 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Neonode Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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Frequently Asked Questions About Neonode Inc.

What is Neonode Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Neonode Inc. (NEON) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $4.38. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NEON overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.82, 7 of 7 active models suggest NEON may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Neonode Inc.'s business model in Electronic Components, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for NEON?

Neonode Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NEON?

CirclFi analyzes NEON with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NEON a value trap in 2026?

Neonode Inc.'s Value Trap score is 43/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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