Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) Fair Value 2026

AIZ · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) trades at $279.81, approximately 6% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $298.79. QOC: 9.6/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AIZ
Price
$279.81
Quality Score
9.6/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +45.4% upside with 50% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($279.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$298.79 +6.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$176.27 -37.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$278.77 -0.4%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$406.87 +45.4%

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What Is Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Assurant, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $295.04, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $279.81. While the average implied return is +5.4%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +222.5% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $721.88 (+158.0%), while Regime Cross — the most conservative — estimates $99.40 (-64.5%). This +222.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Assurant, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AIZ?

12 of 13 models are currently active for AIZ. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AIZ's intrinsic value at $298.79, implying +6.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AIZ Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 5 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, AIZ ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.6 places AIZ in the top tier.

Assurant, Inc.'s positioning within the Insurance - Property & Casualty segment means that investment float plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including premium rate hardening — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AIZ a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for AIZ. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Assurant, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Assurant, Inc. scores 9.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +222.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AIZ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AIZ's 12 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Assurant, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ACIC · AII · ALL · AFG

Frequently Asked Questions About Assurant, Inc.

What is Assurant, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Assurant, Inc. (AIZ) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $298.79. The Quality of Company score is 9.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AIZ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $279.81, 4 of 12 active models suggest AIZ may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Assurant, Inc.'s business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.6 mean for AIZ?

Assurant, Inc.'s QOC of 9.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AIZ?

CirclFi analyzes AIZ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AIZ a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for AIZ at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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