American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC) Fair Value 2026

ACIC · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (37/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC) trades at $9.43, versus a $18.72 median fair value across its 6 active models — 98.5% above the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 37/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ACIC
Price
$9.43
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
37/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +182.0% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $18.72, 98.5% above the current price of $9.43. Estimates range from $5.57 to $42.30. ACIC scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 37/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ACIC’s +98.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -14.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy American Coastal Insurance Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ACIC?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.57 -40.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $18.98 +101.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.59 +182.0%
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What Is ACIC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $5.57 to $42.30

CirclFi's 6 active models place American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC) between $5.57 and $42.30 per share, a spread of 196% of the median. The median of that range — $18.72 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ACIC, against a current price of $9.43.

Low · EPVHigh · ML-RIV
$5.57median $18.72$42.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$5.57
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$42.30
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ACIC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ACIC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, American Coastal Insurance Corporation is potentially undervalued at its current price of $9.43. Based on our 13-model framework, American Coastal Insurance Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $18.72 — representing +98.5% implied upside — with 5 out of 6 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $42.30 (+348.5%), versus EPV at $5.57 (-40.9%). This +389.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ACIC?

6 of 13 models are currently active for ACIC. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ACIC is $18.72 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ACIC Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 41 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, ACIC ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places ACIC in the top tier.

American Coastal Insurance Corporation's positioning within the Insurance - Property & Casualty segment means that premium growth rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including distribution channel efficiency — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ACIC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACIC a score of 37/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for American Coastal Insurance Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, American Coastal Insurance Corporation earns a quality score of 8.8/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +389.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ACIC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ACIC's 6 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy American Coastal Insurance Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

PGRThe Progressive CorporationQOC 8.8THGThe Hanover Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.8CINFCincinnati Financial CorporationQOC 8.8MCYMercury General CorporationQOC 8.7AIZAssurant, Inc.QOC 8.9CBChubb LimitedQOC 8.7SIGISelective Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.3GBLIGlobal Indemnity Group, LLCQOC 7.6KINSKingstone Companies, Inc.QOC 9.5HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: PGR · THG · CINF · MCY · AIZ · CB · SIGI · GBLI · KINS · HCI · HRTG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ACIC?

7 companies across all industries closest to ACIC’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

BRCBrady CorporationQOC 8.8ENSEnerSysQOC 8.8PINSPinterest, Inc.QOC 8.8BAHBooz Allen Hamilton Holding CorporationQOC 8.8HBANHuntington Bancshares IncorporatedQOC 8.8GPORGulfport Energy CorporationQOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BRC · ENS · PINS · BAH · HBAN · GPOR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About American Coastal Insurance Corporation’s Valuation?

What is American Coastal Insurance Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC)'s intrinsic value at $18.72 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $5.57 to $42.30. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ACIC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.43, 5 of 6 active models suggest ACIC may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $18.72, 98.5% above the current price of $9.43 — a consensus view that ACIC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits American Coastal Insurance Corporation's business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for ACIC?

American Coastal Insurance Corporation's QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ACIC?

CirclFi analyzes ACIC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ACIC?

Of the 6 models currently active on ACIC, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $42.30 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $5.57. CirclFi's published fair value for ACIC is the median of that range, $18.72, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 196% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ACIC a value trap in 2026?

American Coastal Insurance Corporation's Value Trap score is 37/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC) has a median fair value of $18.72 — 98.5% above the current price of $9.43 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ACIC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ACIC valuation

Market data for ACIC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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