American Integrity Insurance Gr (AII) Fair Value 2026

AII · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, American Integrity Insurance Gr (AII) trades at $19.26, approximately 80% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $98.35. QOC: 8.6/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AII
Price
$19.26
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +410.7% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($19.26)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$98.35 +410.7%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$25.90 +34.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$48.75 +153.1%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$32.57 +69.1%

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What Is American Integrity Insurance Gr (AII) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, American Integrity Insurance Gr's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $46.11. At a current market price of $19.26, 10 of 12 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting an average implied return of +139.4%. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +418.1% (fair value: $99.78), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -11.8% ($16.99). The spread between these extremes — +429.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AII?

12 of 13 models are currently active for AII. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AII's intrinsic value at $98.35, implying +410.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AII Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 5 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, AII ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places AII in the top tier.

As a underwriting business, American Integrity Insurance Gr operates in a sector where expense ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AII should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AII a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for AII. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for American Integrity Insurance Gr. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, American Integrity Insurance Gr is rated at 8.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +429.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AII valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AII's 12 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy American Integrity Insurance Gr Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AIZ · ACIC · ALL · AFG

Frequently Asked Questions About American Integrity Insurance Gr

What is American Integrity Insurance Gr's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, American Integrity Insurance Gr (AII) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $98.35. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AII overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $19.26, 10 of 12 active models suggest AII may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits American Integrity Insurance Gr's business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for AII?

American Integrity Insurance Gr's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AII?

CirclFi analyzes AII with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AII a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for AII at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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