T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Fair Value 2026

TMUS · Telecom Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) trades at $177.75, versus a $245.04 median fair value across its 12 active models — 37.9% above the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $965.32.

Key Facts

Ticker
TMUS
Price
$177.75
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +443.1% upside with 70% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $245.04, 37.9% above the current price of $177.75. Estimates range from $75.35 to $965.32. TMUS scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TMUS’s +37.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Telecom Services sector median is +30.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy T-Mobile US, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TMUS?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($177.75)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $965.32 +443.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $75.35 -57.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $267.47 +50.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $591.48 +232.8%
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What Is TMUS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $75.35 to $965.32

CirclFi's 12 active models place T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) between $75.35 and $965.32 per share, a spread of 363% of the median. The median of that range — $245.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TMUS, against a current price of $177.75.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$75.35median $245.04$965.32
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$75.35
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$965.32
Model agreement7 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TMUS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TMUS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, T-Mobile US, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $245.04, suggesting a +37.9% median upside from the current price of $177.75. While 7 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 4 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $965.32 (+443.1%), versus EPV at $75.35 (-57.6%). This +500.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TMUS?

12 of 13 models are currently active for TMUS. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TMUS is $245.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $965.32 on its own, implying +443.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TMUS Rank in Telecom Services?

Among 55 Telecom Services stocks, TMUS ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places TMUS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Telecom Services Stocks →

As a media and communications company, T-Mobile US, Inc. operates in a sector where average revenue per user (ARPU) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating TMUS should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is TMUS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TMUS a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for T-Mobile US, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, T-Mobile US, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +500.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TMUS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TMUS's 12 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy T-Mobile US, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Telecom Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Telecom Services stocks with 13-model coverage

IDTIDT CorporationQOC 8.6BCEBCE Inc.QOC 8.6IRDMIridium Communications Inc.QOC 8.7CHTRCharter Communications, Inc.QOC 8.4VEONVEON Ltd.QOC 2.6TIMBTIM S.A.QOC 8.3KYIVKyivstar Group Ltd.QOC 7.5LILALiberty Latin America Ltd.QOC 6.2NIXXNixxy, Inc.QOC 5.3

Read investment analysis: IDT · BCE · IRDM · CHTR · VEON · TIMB · KYIV · LILA · NIXX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TMUS?

7 companies across all industries closest to TMUS’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

GEGE AerospaceQOC 8.6BMABanco Macro S.A.QOC 8.6VICIVICI Properties Inc.QOC 8.6RDVTRed Violet, Inc.QOC 8.6EGPEastGroup Properties, Inc.QOC 8.6LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GE · BMA · VICI · RDVT · EGP · LVS · NVDA

Where Does TMUS Sit in CirclFi's Telecom Services Rankings?

TMUS is ranked against every other Telecom Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Telecom Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About T-Mobile US, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is T-Mobile US, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)'s intrinsic value at $245.04 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $75.35 to $965.32. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $965.32 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TMUS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $177.75, 8 of 12 active models suggest TMUS may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $245.04, 37.9% above the current price of $177.75 — a consensus view that TMUS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits T-Mobile US, Inc.'s business model in Telecom Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for TMUS?

T-Mobile US, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TMUS?

CirclFi analyzes TMUS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TMUS?

Of the 12 models currently active on TMUS, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $965.32 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $75.35. CirclFi's published fair value for TMUS is the median of that range, $245.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 363% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TMUS a value trap in 2026?

T-Mobile US, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) has a median fair value of $245.04 — 37.9% above the current price of $177.75 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TMUS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TMUS valuation
  • Financial statements: T-Mobile US, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001283699) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TMUS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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