Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) Fair Value 2026

ORI · Insurance - Property & Casualty ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) trades at $42.24, versus a $44.74 median fair value across its 6 active models — 5.9% above the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ORI
Price
$42.24
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +55.4% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $44.74, within 5.9% of the current price of $42.24. Estimates range from $29.01 to $65.65. ORI scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ORI’s +5.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Insurance - Property & Casualty sector median is -14.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Old Republic International Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ORI?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($42.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $44.46 +5.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $44.66 +5.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $65.65 +55.4%
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What Is ORI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $29.01 to $65.65

CirclFi's 6 active models place Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) between $29.01 and $65.65 per share, a spread of 82% of the median. The median of that range — $44.74 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ORI, against a current price of $42.24.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$29.01median $44.74$65.65
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$29.01
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$65.65
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ORI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Old Republic International Corporation. Trading at $42.24 against an estimated intrinsic value of $44.74, 5 of 6 active models flag meaningful upside of +5.9% at the median. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $65.65 (+55.4%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $29.01 (-31.3%). This +86.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Old Republic International Corporation's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ORI?

6 of 13 models are currently active for ORI. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ORI is $44.74 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ORI Rank in Insurance - Property & Casualty?

Among 41 Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, ORI ranks #20 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places ORI in the top tier.

Old Republic International Corporation's positioning within the Insurance - Property & Casualty segment means that policy retention rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including investment income yield — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ORI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ORI a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Old Republic International Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Old Republic International Corporation scores 8.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +86.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ORI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ORI's 6 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Old Republic International Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Insurance - Property & Casualty Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks with 13-model coverage

AIIAmerican Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.7UFCSUnited Fire Group, Inc.QOC 8.4CBChubb LimitedQOC 8.7WTMWhite Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.QOC 8.4MCYMercury General CorporationQOC 8.7WRBW. R. Berkley CorporationQOC 8.3SKWDSkyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.QOC 8.1LMNDLemonade, Inc.QOC 6.6HGTYHagerty, Inc.QOC 9.0HCIHCI Group, Inc.QOC 9.9HRTGHeritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: AII · UFCS · CB · WTM · MCY · WRB · SKWD · LMND · HGTY · HCI · HRTG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ORI?

7 companies across all industries closest to ORI’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

SOGPSound Group Inc.QOC 8.6YETIYETI Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6EVREvercore Inc.QOC 8.6CHDNChurchill Downs IncorporatedQOC 8.6FMXFomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 8.6UANCVR Partners, LPQOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SOGP · YETI · EVR · CHDN · FMX · UAN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Old Republic International Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Old Republic International Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Old Republic International Corporation (ORI)'s intrinsic value at $44.74 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $29.01 to $65.65. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ORI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $42.24, 5 of 6 active models suggest ORI may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $44.74, within 5.9% of the current price of $42.24 — a consensus view that ORI is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Old Republic International Corporation's business model in Insurance - Property & Casualty.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for ORI?

Old Republic International Corporation's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ORI?

CirclFi analyzes ORI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ORI?

Of the 6 models currently active on ORI, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $65.65 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $29.01. CirclFi's published fair value for ORI is the median of that range, $44.74, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 82% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ORI a value trap in 2026?

Old Republic International Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) has a median fair value of $44.74 — within 5.9% of the current price of $42.24 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ORI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ORI valuation

Market data for ORI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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