United Rentals, Inc. (URI) Fair Value 2026

URI · Rental & Leasing Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, United Rentals, Inc. (URI) trades at $1030.25, versus a $476.45 median fair value across its 11 active models — 53.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $476.45.

Key Facts

Ticker
URI
Price
$1030.25
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +13.5% upside with 62% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is United Rentals, Inc. (URI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, United Rentals, Inc. (URI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $476.45, 53.8% below the current price of $1030.25. Estimates range from $145.60 to $1197.88. URI scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. URI’s -53.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Rental & Leasing Services sector median is +5.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy United Rentals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give URI?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1030.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $476.45 -53.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $172.30 -83.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $483.78 -53.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $1169.39 +13.5%
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What Is URI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $145.60 to $1197.88

CirclFi's 11 active models place United Rentals, Inc. (URI) between $145.60 and $1197.88 per share, a spread of 221% of the median. The median of that range — $476.45 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for URI, against a current price of $1030.25.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$145.60median $476.45$1197.88
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$145.60
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1197.88
Model agreement2 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for URI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on URI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is United Rentals, Inc. (URI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, United Rentals, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $476.45. Trading at its current price of $1,030.25, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -53.8%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $1,197.88 (+16.3%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $145.60 (-85.9%). This +102.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about United Rentals, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About URI?

11 of 13 models are currently active for URI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for URI is $476.45 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $476.45 on its own, implying -53.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does URI Rank in Rental & Leasing Services?

Among 23 Rental & Leasing Services stocks, URI ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places URI in the top tier.

United Rentals, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is URI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns URI a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for United Rentals, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, United Rentals, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +102.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every URI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across URI's 11 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy United Rentals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Rental & Leasing Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Rental & Leasing Services stocks with 13-model coverage

MWGMulti Ways Holdings LimitedQOC 2.7MGRCMcGrath RentCorpQOC 8.3AIHSSenmiao Technology LimitedQOC 4.1GATXGATX CorporationQOC 8.2DWAYDriveItAway Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.4AERAerCap Holdings N.V.QOC 8.2PRGPROG Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6HTZHertz Global Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6VSTSVestis CorporationQOC 5.6

Read investment analysis: MWG · MGRC · AIHS · GATX · DWAY · AER · PRG · HTZ · VSTS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to URI?

7 companies across all industries closest to URI’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

ULSUL Solutions Inc.QOC 8.6UNPUnion Pacific CorporationQOC 8.6EZPWEZCORP, Inc.QOC 8.6SRCE1st Source CorporationQOC 8.6AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd.QOC 8.6OTTROtter Tail CorporationQOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ULS · UNP · EZPW · SRCE · AXTA · OTTR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About United Rentals, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is United Rentals, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts United Rentals, Inc. (URI)'s intrinsic value at $476.45 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $145.60 to $1197.88. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $476.45 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is URI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1030.25, 2 of 11 active models suggest URI may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $476.45, 53.8% below the current price of $1030.25 — a consensus view that URI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits United Rentals, Inc.'s business model in Rental & Leasing Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for URI?

United Rentals, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on URI?

CirclFi analyzes URI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on URI?

Of the 11 models currently active on URI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $1197.88 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $145.60. CirclFi's published fair value for URI is the median of that range, $476.45, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 221% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is URI a value trap in 2026?

United Rentals, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, United Rentals, Inc. (URI) has a median fair value of $476.45 — 53.8% below the current price of $1030.25 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/URI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this URI valuation
  • Financial statements: United Rentals, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001067701) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for URI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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