McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) Fair Value 2026

MGRC · Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (37/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) trades at $117.17, approximately 15% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $101.98. QOC: 9.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 37/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MGRC
Price
$117.17
Quality Score
9.0/10
Value Trap Risk
37/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +105.0% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($117.17)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $101.98 -13.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $65.76 -43.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $87.67 -25.2%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $240.16 +105.0%

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What Is McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, McGrath RentCorp's intrinsic value is estimated at $92.35, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $117.17. With 10 out of 13 models flagging downside (-21.2% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $240.16 (+105.0%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $1.98 (-98.3%). This +203.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about McGrath RentCorp's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MGRC?

13 of 13 models are currently active for MGRC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MGRC's intrinsic value at $101.98, implying -13.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MGRC Rank in Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC?

Among 9 Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC stocks, MGRC ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.0 places MGRC in the top tier.

McGrath RentCorp operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MGRC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MGRC a score of 37/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for McGrath RentCorp. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, McGrath RentCorp's fundamental quality profile registers 9.0/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +203.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MGRC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MGRC's 13 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy McGrath RentCorp Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

PRGPROG Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.7SUNBSunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.8UPBDUpbound Group, Inc.QOC 7.4CTOSCustom Truck One Source, Inc.QOC 6.9URIUnited Rentals, Inc.QOC 6.8EQPTEquipmentShare.com IncQOC 6.5KPLTKatapult Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.1EHGOEshallgo Inc.QOC 2.7

Read investment analysis: PRG · SUNB · UPBD · CTOS · URI

Frequently Asked Questions About McGrath RentCorp

What is McGrath RentCorp's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $101.98. The Quality of Company score is 9.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MGRC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $117.17, 3 of 13 active models suggest MGRC may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits McGrath RentCorp's business model in Services-Equipment Rental & Leasing, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.0 mean for MGRC?

McGrath RentCorp's QOC of 9.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MGRC?

CirclFi analyzes MGRC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MGRC a value trap in 2026?

McGrath RentCorp's Value Trap score is 37/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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