AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Fair Value 2026

AER · Rental & Leasing Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) trades at $147.49, versus a $345.70 median fair value across its 10 active models — 134.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AER
Price
$147.49
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +311.8% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $345.70, 134.4% above the current price of $147.49. Estimates range from $24.98 to $607.34. AER scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AER’s +134.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Rental & Leasing Services sector median is +5.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AerCap Holdings N.V. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AER?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($147.49)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $382.95 +159.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $607.34 +311.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $50.68 -65.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $376.84 +155.5%
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What Is AER's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $24.98 to $607.34

CirclFi's 10 active models place AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) between $24.98 and $607.34 per share, a spread of 168% of the median. The median of that range — $345.70 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AER, against a current price of $147.49.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$24.98median $345.70$607.34
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$24.98
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$607.34
Model agreement8 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AER. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AER, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for AerCap Holdings N.V.. Trading at $147.49 against an estimated intrinsic value of $345.70, 8 of 10 active models flag meaningful upside of +134.4% at the median. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $607.34 (+311.8%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $24.98 (-83.1%). This +394.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about AerCap Holdings N.V.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AER?

10 of 13 models are currently active for AER. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AER is $345.70 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AER Rank in Rental & Leasing Services?

Among 23 Rental & Leasing Services stocks, AER ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places AER in the top tier.

AerCap Holdings N.V. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AER a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AER a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for AerCap Holdings N.V.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AerCap Holdings N.V. scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +394.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AER valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AER's 10 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AerCap Holdings N.V. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Rental & Leasing Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Rental & Leasing Services stocks with 13-model coverage

GATXGATX CorporationQOC 8.2WLFCWillis Lease Finance CorporationQOC 8.2MGRCMcGrath RentCorpQOC 8.3PRGPROG Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6URIUnited Rentals, Inc.QOC 8.6SUNBSunbelt Rentals Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.5EQPTEquipmentShare.com Inc.QOC 7.1CARAvis Budget Group, Inc.QOC 6.4DWAYDriveItAway Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.4

Read investment analysis: GATX · WLFC · MGRC · PRG · URI · SUNB · EQPT · CAR · DWAY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AER?

7 companies across all industries closest to AER’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

ERIIEnergy Recovery, Inc.QOC 8.2CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2RAILFreightCar America, Inc.QOC 8.2GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A.QOC 8.2NOBHNobility Homes, Inc.QOC 8.2CUBICustomers Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ERII · CRWD · RAIL · GGAL · NOBH · CUBI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About AerCap Holdings N.V.’s Valuation?

What is AerCap Holdings N.V.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER)'s intrinsic value at $345.70 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $24.98 to $607.34. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AER overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $147.49, 8 of 10 active models suggest AER may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $345.70, 134.4% above the current price of $147.49 — a consensus view that AER is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AerCap Holdings N.V.'s business model in Rental & Leasing Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for AER?

AerCap Holdings N.V.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AER?

CirclFi analyzes AER with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AER?

Of the 10 models currently active on AER, First Chicago is the most bullish at $607.34 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $24.98. CirclFi's published fair value for AER is the median of that range, $345.70, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 168% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AER a value trap in 2026?

AerCap Holdings N.V.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) has a median fair value of $345.70 — 134.4% above the current price of $147.49 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AER/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AER valuation
  • Financial statements: AerCap Holdings N.V. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001378789) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AER as of ; valuations recomputed .

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