Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) Fair Value 2026

CAR · Rental & Leasing Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) trades at $138.12, versus a $704.79 median fair value across its 5 active models — 410.3% above the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CAR
Price
$138.12
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +410.3% upside with 12% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $704.79, 410.3% above the current price of $138.12. Estimates range from $141.49 to $794.81. CAR scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CAR’s +410.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Rental & Leasing Services sector median is +5.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Avis Budget Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CAR?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($138.12)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $704.79 +410.3%
Asset-Based · Medium Conviction
 $246.47 +78.4%
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What Is CAR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $141.49 to $794.81

CirclFi's 5 active models place Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) between $141.49 and $794.81 per share, a spread of 93% of the median. The median of that range — $704.79 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CAR, against a current price of $138.12.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · FTNN
$141.49median $704.79$794.81
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$141.49
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$794.81
Model agreement4 bullish · 0 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CAR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Avis Budget Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $704.79. At a current market price of $138.12, 4 of 5 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +410.3%. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +475.4% (fair value: $794.81), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at +2.4% ($141.49). The spread between these extremes — +473.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CAR?

5 of 13 models are currently active for CAR. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CAR is $704.79 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CAR Rank in Rental & Leasing Services?

Among 23 Rental & Leasing Services stocks, CAR ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

Avis Budget Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CAR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CAR a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Avis Budget Group, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Avis Budget Group, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +473.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CAR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CAR's 5 active models, average confidence is 28%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Avis Budget Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Rental & Leasing Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Rental & Leasing Services stocks with 13-model coverage

WSCWillScot Holdings CorporationQOC 6.4ALTGAlta Equipment Group Inc.QOC 6.3UHALU-Haul Holding CompanyQOC 6.5LIMENeutron Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.7HTZHertz Global Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6VSTSVestis CorporationQOC 5.6ZCARZoomcar Holdings, Inc.QOC 4.6GATXGATX CorporationQOC 8.2EQPTEquipmentShare.com Inc.QOC 7.1URIUnited Rentals, Inc.QOC 8.6MGRCMcGrath RentCorpQOC 8.3

Read investment analysis: WSC · ALTG · UHAL · LIME · HTZ · VSTS · ZCAR · GATX · EQPT · URI · MGRC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CAR?

7 companies across all industries closest to CAR’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

SGRYSurgery Partners, Inc.QOC 6.4FNWBFirst Northwest BancorpQOC 6.4HOFTHooker Furnishings CorporationQOC 6.4KBKB Financial Group Inc.QOC 6.4MGLDThe Marygold Companies, Inc.QOC 6.4RDGLVivos Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SGRY · FNWB · HOFT · KB · MGLD · RDGL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Avis Budget Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Avis Budget Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)'s intrinsic value at $704.79 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $141.49 to $794.81. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CAR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $138.12, 5 of 5 active models suggest CAR may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $704.79, 410.3% above the current price of $138.12 — a consensus view that CAR is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Avis Budget Group, Inc.'s business model in Rental & Leasing Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for CAR?

Avis Budget Group, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CAR?

CirclFi analyzes CAR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CAR?

Of the 5 models currently active on CAR, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $794.81 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $141.49. CirclFi's published fair value for CAR is the median of that range, $704.79, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 93% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CAR a value trap in 2026?

Avis Budget Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) has a median fair value of $704.79 — 410.3% above the current price of $138.12 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CAR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CAR valuation
  • Financial statements: Avis Budget Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000723612) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CAR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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