Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Fair Value 2026

ORCL · Services-Prepackaged Software ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Oracle Corporation (ORCL) trades at $131.69, approximately 438% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $24.48. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
ORCL
Price
$131.69
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.9/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($131.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $24.48 -81.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $48.62 -63.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
 $89.17 -32.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $120.75 -8.3%

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What Is Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Oracle Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $93.25. Trading at $131.69, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -29.2%), as 9 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +43.5% (fair value: $189.03), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -96.6% ($4.52). The spread between these extremes — +140.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About ORCL?

13 of 13 models are currently active for ORCL. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ORCL's intrinsic value at $24.48, implying -81.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ORCL Rank in Services-Prepackaged Software?

Among 208 Services-Prepackaged Software stocks, ORCL ranks #36 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places ORCL in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks →

Oracle Corporation's positioning within the Services-Prepackaged Software segment means that gross margin profile plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including enterprise adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is ORCL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ORCL a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Oracle Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Oracle Corporation earns a quality score of 8.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +140.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ORCL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ORCL's 13 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Oracle Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Prepackaged Software Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Services-Prepackaged Software stocks with 13-model coverage

CRMSalesforce, Inc.QOC 10.0CVLTCommvault Systems, Inc.QOC 10.0EGANeGain CorporationQOC 10.0MANHManhattan Associates, Inc.QOC 10.0MSFTMicrosoft CorporationQOC 10.0NTESNetEase, Inc.QOC 10.0PCTYPaylocity Holding CorporationQOC 10.0VEEVVeeva Systems Inc.QOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CRM · CVLT · EGAN · MANH · MSFT

See all Services-Prepackaged Software stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Oracle Corporation

What is Oracle Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Oracle Corporation (ORCL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $24.48. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ORCL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $131.69, 4 of 13 active models suggest ORCL may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Oracle Corporation's business model in Services-Prepackaged Software.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for ORCL?

Oracle Corporation's QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ORCL?

CirclFi analyzes ORCL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is ORCL a value trap in 2026?

Oracle Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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