McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Fair Value 2026

MCD · Restaurants ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, McDonald's Corporation (MCD) trades at $232.45, versus a $205.50 median fair value across its 10 active models — 11.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $220.28.

Key Facts

Ticker
MCD
Price
$232.45
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, McDonald's Corporation (MCD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $205.50, 11.6% below the current price of $232.45. Estimates range from $59.40 to $434.44. MCD scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. MCD’s -11.6% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Restaurants sector median is -11.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy McDonald's Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MCD?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($232.45)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $220.28 -5.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $142.98 -38.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $200.14 -13.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $59.40 -74.4%
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What Is MCD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $59.40 to $434.44

CirclFi's 10 active models place McDonald's Corporation (MCD) between $59.40 and $434.44 per share, a spread of 183% of the median. The median of that range — $205.50 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MCD, against a current price of $232.45.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$59.40median $205.50$434.44
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$59.40
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$434.44
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MCD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MCD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, McDonald's Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $205.50. Trading at $232.45, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -11.6%), as 7 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $434.44 (+86.9%), versus EROIC at $59.40 (-74.4%). This +161.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MCD?

10 of 13 models are currently active for MCD. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MCD is $205.50 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $220.28 on its own, implying -5.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MCD Rank in Restaurants?

Among 56 Restaurants stocks, MCD ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places MCD in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Restaurants Stocks →

McDonald's Corporation's positioning within the Restaurants segment means that same-store sales growth (comps) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including geographic expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MCD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MCD a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for McDonald's Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, McDonald's Corporation scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +161.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MCD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MCD's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy McDonald's Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Restaurants Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Restaurants stocks with 13-model coverage

NATHNathan's Famous, Inc.QOC 8.4CHAChagee Holdings LimitedQOC 8.3ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc.QOC 8.5BJRIBJ's Restaurants, Inc.QOC 8.3CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory IncorporatedQOC 8.5DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc.QOC 8.2SBUXStarbucks CorporationQOC 7.4SGSweetgreen, Inc.QOC 5.9JMKEJersey Mike's Subs Inc.QOC 3.9EATBrinker International, Inc.QOC 9.3CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.QOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: NATH · CHA · ARCO · BJRI · CAKE · DPZ · SBUX · SG · JMKE · EAT · CMG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MCD?

7 companies across all industries closest to MCD’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

LOBLive Oak Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.3CARECarter Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.3WRBW. R. Berkley CorporationQOC 8.3MALGMicroalliance Group Inc.QOC 8.3CENTCentral Garden & Pet CompanyQOC 8.3REXREX American Resources CorporationQOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LOB · CARE · WRB · MALG · CENT · REX · NVDA

Where Does MCD Sit in CirclFi's Restaurants Rankings?

MCD is ranked against every other Restaurants stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Restaurants stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About McDonald's Corporation’s Valuation?

What is McDonald's Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts McDonald's Corporation (MCD)'s intrinsic value at $205.50 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $59.40 to $434.44. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $220.28 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MCD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $232.45, 3 of 10 active models suggest MCD may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $205.50, 11.6% below the current price of $232.45 — a consensus view that MCD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits McDonald's Corporation's business model in Restaurants.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for MCD?

McDonald's Corporation's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MCD?

CirclFi analyzes MCD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MCD?

Of the 10 models currently active on MCD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $434.44 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $59.40. CirclFi's published fair value for MCD is the median of that range, $205.50, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 183% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MCD a value trap in 2026?

McDonald's Corporation's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, McDonald's Corporation (MCD) has a median fair value of $205.50 — 11.6% below the current price of $232.45 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MCD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MCD valuation
  • Financial statements: McDonald's Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000063908) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MCD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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