What Is McDonald's Corporation (MCD) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, McDonald's Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $191.05. Trading at its current price of $272.56, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -29.9%. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $426.14 (+56.3%), versus EROIC at $33.48 (-87.7%). This +144.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About MCD?
12 of 13 models are currently active for MCD. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MCD's intrinsic value at $141.66, implying -48.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does MCD Rank in Retail-Eating Places?
Among 42 Retail-Eating Places stocks, MCD ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places MCD in the top tier.
See all Most Undervalued Retail-Eating Places Stocks →
McDonald's Corporation's positioning within the Retail-Eating Places segment means that same-store sales growth (comps) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including geographic expansion — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is MCD a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for MCD. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for McDonald's Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, McDonald's Corporation scores 8.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +144.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every MCD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across MCD's 12 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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