OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) Fair Value 2026

OSW · Leisure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) trades at $23.28, versus a $13.89 median fair value across its 10 active models — 40.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $17.89.

Key Facts

Ticker
OSW
Price
$23.28
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $13.89, 40.3% below the current price of $23.28. Estimates range from $6.73 to $46.03. OSW scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. OSW’s -40.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Leisure sector median is -18.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OSW?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.28)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.89 -23.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $15.38 -33.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $19.46 -16.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.73 -71.1%
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What Is OSW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $6.73 to $46.03

CirclFi's 10 active models place OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) between $6.73 and $46.03 per share, a spread of 283% of the median. The median of that range — $13.89 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OSW, against a current price of $23.28.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$6.73median $13.89$46.03
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$6.73
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$46.03
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OSW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OSW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at $13.89, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $23.28. With 8 out of 10 models flagging downside (-40.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $46.03 (+97.7%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $6.73 (-71.1%). This +168.8% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About OSW?

10 of 13 models are currently active for OSW. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OSW is $13.89 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $17.89 on its own, implying -23.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OSW Rank in Leisure?

Among 34 Leisure stocks, OSW ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places OSW in the top tier.

OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is OSW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OSW a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited's fundamental quality profile registers 8.3/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +168.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OSW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OSW's 10 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Leisure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Leisure stocks with 13-model coverage

MATMattel, Inc.QOC 8.4HEREHere Group LimitedQOC 8.2YETIYETI Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6PRKSUnited Parks & Resorts Inc.QOC 8.0PLNTPlanet Fitness, Inc.QOC 8.7LTHLife Time Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9JAKKJAKKS Pacific, Inc.QOC 7.5XPOFXponential Fitness, Inc.QOC 6.1KMRKK-TECH Solutions Company LimitedQOC 3.0GOLFAcushnet Holdings Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: MAT · HERE · YETI · PRKS · PLNT · LTH · JAKK · XPOF · KMRK · GOLF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OSW?

7 companies across all industries closest to OSW’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

CIENCiena CorporationQOC 8.3WWWWolverine World Wide, Inc.QOC 8.3SONSonoco Products CompanyQOC 8.3FULTFulton Financial CorporationQOC 8.3THCTenet Healthcare CorporationQOC 8.3DXPEDXP Enterprises, Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CIEN · WWW · SON · FULT · THC · DXPE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited’s Valuation?

What is OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW)'s intrinsic value at $13.89 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $6.73 to $46.03. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $17.89 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OSW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.28, 2 of 10 active models suggest OSW may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $13.89, 40.3% below the current price of $23.28 — a consensus view that OSW is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited's business model in Leisure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for OSW?

OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OSW?

CirclFi analyzes OSW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OSW?

Of the 10 models currently active on OSW, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $46.03 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $6.73. CirclFi's published fair value for OSW is the median of that range, $13.89, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 283% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OSW a value trap in 2026?

OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) has a median fair value of $13.89 — 40.3% below the current price of $23.28 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OSW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OSW valuation
  • Financial statements: OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001758488) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OSW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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