Mattel, Inc. (MAT) Fair Value 2026

MAT · Leisure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Mattel, Inc. (MAT) trades at $15.14, versus a $23.75 median fair value across its 13 active models — 56.8% above the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $64.96.

Key Facts

Ticker
MAT
Price
$15.14
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +352.4% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Is Mattel, Inc. (MAT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Mattel, Inc. (MAT) appears undervalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $23.75, 56.8% above the current price of $15.14. Estimates range from $3.71 to $68.49. MAT scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MAT’s +56.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Leisure sector median is -27.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Mattel, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MAT?

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($15.14)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $64.96 +329.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.33 -5.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $28.74 +89.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $68.49 +352.4%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 9 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 13 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is MAT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 13 independent models · $3.71 to $68.49

CirclFi's 13 active models place Mattel, Inc. (MAT) between $3.71 and $68.49 per share, a spread of 273% of the median. The median of that range — $23.75 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MAT, against a current price of $15.14.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$3.71median $23.75$68.49
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$3.71
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$68.49
Model agreement9 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MAT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MAT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Mattel, Inc. (MAT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Mattel, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $23.75. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $15.14 (implied upside of +56.8%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 9 of 13 bullish models. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +352.4% (fair value: $68.49), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -75.5% ($3.71). The spread between these extremes — +427.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MAT?

13 of 13 models are currently active for MAT. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MAT is $23.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $64.96 on its own, implying +329.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MAT Rank in Leisure?

Among 37 Leisure stocks, MAT ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places MAT in the top tier.

Mattel, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is MAT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MAT a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Mattel, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Mattel, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.4/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +427.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MAT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MAT's 13 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Mattel, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Leisure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Leisure stocks with 13-model coverage

YETIYETI Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6OSWOneSpaWorld Holdings LimitedQOC 8.3PLNTPlanet Fitness, Inc.QOC 8.7PRKSUnited Parks & Resorts Inc.QOC 8.0GOLFAcushnet Holdings Corp.QOC 8.9HEREHere Group LimitedQOC 7.9JAKKJAKKS Pacific, Inc.QOC 7.5XPOFXponential Fitness, Inc.QOC 6.1SPQSSparxx CorporationQOC 3.8

Read investment analysis: YETI · OSW · PLNT · PRKS · GOLF · HERE · JAKK · XPOF · SPQS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MAT?

7 companies across all industries closest to MAT’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

OBKOrigin Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.4GDYNGrid Dynamics Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.4RYRoyal Bank of CanadaQOC 8.4DHID.R. Horton, Inc.QOC 8.4DOXAmdocs LimitedQOC 8.4ZBHZimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OBK · GDYN · RY · DHI · DOX · ZBH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Mattel, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Mattel, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Mattel, Inc. (MAT)'s intrinsic value at $23.75 — the median of 13 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.71 to $68.49. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $64.96 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MAT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $15.14, 9 of 13 active models suggest MAT may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $23.75, 56.8% above the current price of $15.14 — a consensus view that MAT is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Mattel, Inc.'s business model in Leisure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for MAT?

Mattel, Inc.'s QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MAT?

CirclFi analyzes MAT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MAT?

Of the 13 models currently active on MAT, First Chicago is the most bullish at $68.49 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $3.71. CirclFi's published fair value for MAT is the median of that range, $23.75, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 273% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MAT a value trap in 2026?

Mattel, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Mattel, Inc. (MAT) has a median fair value of $23.75 — 56.8% above the current price of $15.14 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MAT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MAT valuation
  • Financial statements: Mattel, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000063276) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MAT as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 13 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on MAT.

Unlock All 13 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

9 models hidden for MAT Unlock All 13 — $39/mo