Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) Fair Value 2026

XPOF · Leisure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) trades at $5.43, versus a $5.87 median fair value across its 7 active models — 8.2% above the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $5.68.

Key Facts

Ticker
XPOF
Price
$5.43
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +23.2% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (7/13) may reduce confidence

Is Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $5.87, within 8.2% of the current price of $5.43. Estimates range from $1.91 to $14.91. XPOF scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 32/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. XPOF’s +8.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Leisure sector median is -27.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Xponential Fitness, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give XPOF?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.68 +4.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.87 +8.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $6.69 +23.2%
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What Is XPOF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $1.91 to $14.91

CirclFi's 7 active models place Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) between $1.91 and $14.91 per share, a spread of 221% of the median. The median of that range — $5.87 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for XPOF, against a current price of $5.43.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$1.91median $5.87$14.91
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$1.91
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$14.91
Model agreement4 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for XPOF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on XPOF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $5.87, suggesting a +8.2% median upside from the current price of $5.43. While 4 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $14.91 (+174.6%), versus EROIC at $1.91 (-64.9%). This +239.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About XPOF?

7 of 13 models are currently active for XPOF. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for XPOF is $5.87 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $5.68 on its own, implying +4.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does XPOF Rank in Leisure?

Among 37 Leisure stocks, XPOF ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

Xponential Fitness, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is XPOF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns XPOF a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Xponential Fitness, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +239.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every XPOF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across XPOF's 7 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Xponential Fitness, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Leisure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Leisure stocks with 13-model coverage

FNKOFunko, Inc.QOC 6.2NOMANomadar Corp.QOC 6.0FUNSix Flags Entertainment CorporationQOC 6.3PLBYPlayboy, Inc.QOC 5.8BWMGBrownie's Marine Group, Inc.QOC 6.3LUCKLucky Strike Entertainment CorporationQOC 5.6SPQSSparxx CorporationQOC 3.8YETIYETI Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6CALYCallaway Golf CompanyQOC 7.5GOLFAcushnet Holdings Corp.QOC 8.9PLNTPlanet Fitness, Inc.QOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: FNKO · NOMA · FUN · PLBY · BWMG · LUCK · SPQS · YETI · CALY · GOLF · PLNT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to XPOF?

7 companies across all industries closest to XPOF’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

SNDLSNDL Inc.QOC 6.1GNSSGenasys Inc.QOC 6.1ARXAccelerant HoldingsQOC 6.1SILOSilo Pharma, Inc.QOC 6.1NIHKVideo River Networks, Inc.QOC 6.1GSITGSI Technology, Inc.QOC 6.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SNDL · GNSS · ARX · SILO · NIHK · GSIT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Xponential Fitness, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF)'s intrinsic value at $5.87 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.91 to $14.91. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $5.68 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is XPOF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.43, 5 of 7 active models suggest XPOF may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $5.87, within 8.2% of the current price of $5.43 — a consensus view that XPOF is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s business model in Leisure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for XPOF?

Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on XPOF?

CirclFi analyzes XPOF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on XPOF?

Of the 7 models currently active on XPOF, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $14.91 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $1.91. CirclFi's published fair value for XPOF is the median of that range, $5.87, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 221% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is XPOF a value trap in 2026?

Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) has a median fair value of $5.87 — within 8.2% of the current price of $5.43 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/XPOF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this XPOF valuation
  • Financial statements: Xponential Fitness, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001802156) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for XPOF as of ; valuations recomputed .

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