JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK) Fair Value 2026

JAKK · Leisure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK) trades at $25.42, versus a $18.38 median fair value across its 13 active models — 27.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $6.42.

Key Facts

Ticker
JAKK
Price
$25.42
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +65.1% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $18.38, 27.7% below the current price of $25.42. Estimates range from $5.68 to $74.08. JAKK scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. JAKK’s -27.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Leisure sector median is -27.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy JAKKS Pacific, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give JAKK?

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.42 -74.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.67 -46.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $18.38 -27.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $41.96 +65.1%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 9 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 13 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is JAKK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 13 independent models · $5.68 to $74.08

CirclFi's 13 active models place JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK) between $5.68 and $74.08 per share, a spread of 372% of the median. The median of that range — $18.38 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for JAKK, against a current price of $25.42.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$5.68median $18.38$74.08
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$5.68
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$74.08
Model agreement4 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for JAKK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on JAKK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on JAKKS Pacific, Inc. at its current price of $25.42. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $18.38 (-27.7% vs price), with 9 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +191.4% (fair value: $74.08), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -77.7% ($5.68). The spread between these extremes — +269.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About JAKK?

13 of 13 models are currently active for JAKK. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for JAKK is $18.38 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $6.42 on its own, implying -74.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JAKK Rank in Leisure?

Among 37 Leisure stocks, JAKK ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

JAKKS Pacific, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is JAKK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JAKK a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for JAKKS Pacific, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, JAKKS Pacific, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.5/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +269.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JAKK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JAKK's 13 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy JAKKS Pacific, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Leisure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Leisure stocks with 13-model coverage

CALYCallaway Golf CompanyQOC 7.5HASHasbro, Inc.QOC 7.2PTONPeloton Interactive, Inc.QOC 7.8JOUTJohnson Outdoors Inc.QOC 7.0ESCAEscalade, IncorporatedQOC 7.8AOUTAmerican Outdoor Brands, Inc.QOC 7.0XPOFXponential Fitness, Inc.QOC 6.1SPQSSparxx CorporationQOC 3.8YETIYETI Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6GOLFAcushnet Holdings Corp.QOC 8.9PLNTPlanet Fitness, Inc.QOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: CALY · HAS · PTON · JOUT · ESCA · AOUT · XPOF · SPQS · YETI · GOLF · PLNT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to JAKK?

7 companies across all industries closest to JAKK’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

BDTXBlack Diamond Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.5PFEPfizer Inc.QOC 7.5GTYGetty Realty Corp.QOC 7.5UNFIUnited Natural Foods, Inc.QOC 7.5MURMurphy Oil CorporationQOC 7.5MMM3M CompanyQOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BDTX · PFE · GTY · UNFI · MUR · MMM · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About JAKKS Pacific, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is JAKKS Pacific, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK)'s intrinsic value at $18.38 — the median of 13 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $5.68 to $74.08. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $6.42 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JAKK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.42, 4 of 13 active models suggest JAKK may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $18.38, 27.7% below the current price of $25.42 — a consensus view that JAKK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits JAKKS Pacific, Inc.'s business model in Leisure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for JAKK?

JAKKS Pacific, Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JAKK?

CirclFi analyzes JAKK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on JAKK?

Of the 13 models currently active on JAKK, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $74.08 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $5.68. CirclFi's published fair value for JAKK is the median of that range, $18.38, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 372% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is JAKK a value trap in 2026?

JAKKS Pacific, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK) has a median fair value of $18.38 — 27.7% below the current price of $25.42 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/JAKK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this JAKK valuation
  • Financial statements: JAKKS Pacific, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001009829) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for JAKK as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 13 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on JAKK.

Unlock All 13 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

9 models hidden for JAKK Unlock All 13 — $39/mo