Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) Fair Value 2026

JOUT · Leisure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) trades at $45.76, versus a $32.58 median fair value across its 10 active models — 28.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $48.42.

Key Facts

Ticker
JOUT
Price
$45.76
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +5.8% upside with 68% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $32.58, 28.8% below the current price of $45.76. Estimates range from $14.36 to $61.41. JOUT scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. JOUT’s -28.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Leisure sector median is -28.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Johnson Outdoors Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give JOUT?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($45.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $48.42 +5.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $32.73 -28.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $34.04 -25.6%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $17.66 -61.4%
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What Is JOUT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $14.36 to $61.41

CirclFi's 10 active models place Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) between $14.36 and $61.41 per share, a spread of 144% of the median. The median of that range — $32.58 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for JOUT, against a current price of $45.76.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$14.36median $32.58$61.41
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$14.36
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$61.41
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for JOUT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on JOUT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Johnson Outdoors Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $32.58. Trading at $45.76, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -28.8%), as 7 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +34.2% (fair value: $61.41), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -68.6% ($14.36). The spread between these extremes — +102.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About JOUT?

10 of 13 models are currently active for JOUT. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for JOUT is $32.58 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $48.42 on its own, implying +5.8% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JOUT Rank in Leisure?

Among 37 Leisure stocks, JOUT ranks #15 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

Johnson Outdoors Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is JOUT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JOUT a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Johnson Outdoors Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Johnson Outdoors Inc. earns a quality score of 7.0/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +102.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JOUT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JOUT's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Johnson Outdoors Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Leisure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Leisure stocks with 13-model coverage

HASHasbro, Inc.QOC 7.2AOUTAmerican Outdoor Brands, Inc.QOC 7.0JAKKJAKKS Pacific, Inc.QOC 7.5PRKAParks! America, Inc.QOC 6.9CALYCallaway Golf CompanyQOC 7.5CLARClarus CorporationQOC 6.6PLBYPlayboy, Inc.QOC 5.8KMRKK-TECH Solutions Company LimitedQOC 3.0OSWOneSpaWorld Holdings LimitedQOC 8.3GOLFAcushnet Holdings Corp.QOC 8.9PLNTPlanet Fitness, Inc.QOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: HAS · AOUT · JAKK · PRKA · CALY · CLAR · PLBY · KMRK · OSW · GOLF · PLNT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to JOUT?

7 companies across all industries closest to JOUT’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

RKLBRocket Lab CorporationQOC 7.0AGMFederal Agricultural Mortgage CorporationQOC 7.0NXGLNEXGEL, Inc.QOC 7.0SLMSLM CorporationQOC 7.0PNWPinnacle West Capital CorporationQOC 7.0GHGuardant Health, Inc.QOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RKLB · AGM · NXGL · SLM · PNW · GH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Johnson Outdoors Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Johnson Outdoors Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT)'s intrinsic value at $32.58 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $14.36 to $61.41. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $48.42 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JOUT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $45.76, 3 of 10 active models suggest JOUT may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $32.58, 28.8% below the current price of $45.76 — a consensus view that JOUT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Johnson Outdoors Inc.'s business model in Leisure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for JOUT?

Johnson Outdoors Inc.'s QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JOUT?

CirclFi analyzes JOUT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on JOUT?

Of the 10 models currently active on JOUT, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $61.41 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $14.36. CirclFi's published fair value for JOUT is the median of that range, $32.58, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 144% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is JOUT a value trap in 2026?

Johnson Outdoors Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) has a median fair value of $32.58 — 28.8% below the current price of $45.76 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/JOUT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this JOUT valuation
  • Financial statements: Johnson Outdoors Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000788329) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for JOUT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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