Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) Fair Value 2026

JOUT · Sporting & Athletic Goods, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) trades at $44.25, approximately 2% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $43.44. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
JOUT
Price
$44.25
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +55.1% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($44.25)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$43.44 -1.8%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$30.49 -31.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
$48.58 +9.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$68.64 +55.1%

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What Is Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Johnson Outdoors Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $50.99. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $44.25 (implied upside of +15.2%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 13 bullish models. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +63.8% (fair value: $72.49), while EPV is the most conservative at -31.1% ($30.49). The spread between these extremes — +94.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About JOUT?

13 of 13 models are currently active for JOUT. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates JOUT's intrinsic value at $43.44, implying -1.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JOUT Rank in Sporting & Athletic Goods, NEC?

Among 12 Sporting & Athletic Goods, NEC stocks, JOUT ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places JOUT in the top tier.

Johnson Outdoors Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is JOUT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JOUT a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Johnson Outdoors Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Johnson Outdoors Inc. earns a quality score of 8.3/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +94.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JOUT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JOUT's 13 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Johnson Outdoors Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Sporting & Athletic Goods, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Sporting & Athletic Goods, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Johnson Outdoors Inc.

What is Johnson Outdoors Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $43.44. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JOUT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $44.25, 9 of 13 active models suggest JOUT may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Johnson Outdoors Inc.'s business model in Sporting & Athletic Goods, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for JOUT?

Johnson Outdoors Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JOUT?

CirclFi analyzes JOUT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is JOUT a value trap in 2026?

Johnson Outdoors Inc.'s Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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