Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) Fair Value 2026

PNW · Utilities - Regulated Electric ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) trades at $97.64, versus a $74.62 median fair value across its 11 active models — 23.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $545.26.

Key Facts

Ticker
PNW
Price
$97.64
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +458.4% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $74.62, 23.6% below the current price of $97.64. Estimates range from $16.29 to $545.26. PNW scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. PNW’s -23.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Utilities - Regulated Electric sector median is -25.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Pinnacle West Capital Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PNW?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($97.64)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $545.26 +458.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.29 -83.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $74.62 -23.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $42.54 -56.4%
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What Is PNW's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $16.29 to $545.26

CirclFi's 11 active models place Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) between $16.29 and $545.26 per share, a spread of 709% of the median. The median of that range — $74.62 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PNW, against a current price of $97.64.

Low · EPVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$16.29median $74.62$545.26
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$16.29
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$545.26
Model agreement4 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PNW. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PNW, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Pinnacle West Capital Corporation at its current price of $97.64. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $74.62 (-23.6% vs price), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $545.26 (+458.4%), versus EPV at $16.29 (-83.3%). This +541.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PNW?

11 of 13 models are currently active for PNW. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PNW is $74.62 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $545.26 on its own, implying +458.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PNW Rank in Utilities - Regulated Electric?

Among 40 Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, PNW ranks #27 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

As a power and energy company, Pinnacle West Capital Corporation operates in a sector where regulatory lag is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating PNW should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is PNW a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PNW a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Pinnacle West Capital Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Pinnacle West Capital Corporation is rated at 7.0/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +541.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PNW valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PNW's 11 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Pinnacle West Capital Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Electric Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks with 13-model coverage

AEEAmeren CorporationQOC 7.1WECWEC Energy Group, Inc.QOC 7.0PORPortland General Electric CompanyQOC 7.1KEPKorea Electric Power CorporationQOC 7.0OGEOGE Energy Corp.QOC 7.1XELXcel Energy Inc.QOC 6.9EDNEmpresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad AnónimaQOC 6.5DUKDuke Energy CorporationQOC 7.8CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc.QOC 7.3CIGCompanhia Energética de Minas Gerais - CEMIGQOC 8.5GNEGenie Energy Ltd.QOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: AEE · WEC · POR · KEP · OGE · XEL · EDN · DUK · CNP · CIG · GNE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PNW?

7 companies across all industries closest to PNW’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

UUnity Software Inc.QOC 7.0NXGLNEXGEL, Inc.QOC 7.0AVTAvnet, Inc.QOC 7.0RKLBRocket Lab CorporationQOC 7.0OECOrion S.A.QOC 7.0JOUTJohnson Outdoors Inc.QOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: U · NXGL · AVT · RKLB · OEC · JOUT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Pinnacle West Capital Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Pinnacle West Capital Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW)'s intrinsic value at $74.62 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $16.29 to $545.26. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $545.26 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PNW overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $97.64, 4 of 11 active models suggest PNW may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $74.62, 23.6% below the current price of $97.64 — a consensus view that PNW is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Pinnacle West Capital Corporation's business model in Utilities - Regulated Electric.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for PNW?

Pinnacle West Capital Corporation's QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PNW?

CirclFi analyzes PNW with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PNW?

Of the 11 models currently active on PNW, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $545.26 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $16.29. CirclFi's published fair value for PNW is the median of that range, $74.62, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 709% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PNW a value trap in 2026?

Pinnacle West Capital Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW) has a median fair value of $74.62 — 23.6% below the current price of $97.64 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PNW/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PNW valuation
  • Financial statements: Pinnacle West Capital Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000764622) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PNW as of ; valuations recomputed .

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