Ameren Corporation (AEE) Fair Value 2026

AEE · Utilities - Regulated Electric ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Ameren Corporation (AEE) trades at $113.42, approximately 36% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $177.75. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AEE
Price
$113.42
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +56.7% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($113.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$177.75 +56.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$90.95 -19.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$88.42 -22.0%
EROIC Spread
High Conviction
$32.86 -71.0%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 7 additional models including Markov DDM, ML-RIV, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 11 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Ameren Corporation (AEE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Ameren Corporation at its current price of $113.43. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $95.77 (-15.6% average return), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $177.75 (+56.7%), versus EROIC at $32.86 (-71.0%). This +127.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AEE?

11 of 13 models are currently active for AEE. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AEE's intrinsic value at $177.75, implying +56.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AEE Rank in Utilities - Regulated Electric?

Among 2 Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, AEE ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

As a power and energy company, Ameren Corporation operates in a sector where payout ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AEE should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AEE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AEE a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Ameren Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Ameren Corporation is rated at 7.4/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +127.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AEE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AEE's 11 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Ameren Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Utilities - Regulated Electric Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: AEP

Frequently Asked Questions About Ameren Corporation

What is Ameren Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Ameren Corporation (AEE) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $177.75. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AEE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $113.42, 3 of 11 active models suggest AEE may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Ameren Corporation's business model in Utilities - Regulated Electric.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for AEE?

Ameren Corporation's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AEE?

CirclFi analyzes AEE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AEE a value trap in 2026?

Ameren Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 11 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on AEE.

Unlock All 11 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access