What Is Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Moderna, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $40.95. Trading at its current price of $67.01, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 12 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -38.9%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $122.13 (+82.2%), versus ML-RIV at $4.17 (-93.8%). This +176.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About MRNA?
12 of 13 models are currently active for MRNA. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MRNA's intrinsic value at $122.13, implying +82.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does MRNA Rank in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)?
Among 139 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks, MRNA ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.
See all Most Undervalued Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks →
Moderna, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.
Is MRNA a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MRNA a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Moderna, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Moderna, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.5/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +176.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every MRNA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across MRNA's 12 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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