CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) Fair Value 2026

CAPL · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) trades at $23.09, versus a $20.60 median fair value across its 10 active models — 10.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $19.53.

Key Facts

Ticker
CAPL
Price
$23.09
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +91.2% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $20.60, 10.8% below the current price of $23.09. Estimates range from $6.43 to $44.14. CAPL scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CAPL’s -10.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector median is -25.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy CrossAmerica Partners LP Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CAPL?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $19.53 -15.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.43 -72.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $20.60 -10.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $44.14 +91.2%
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What Is CAPL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $6.43 to $44.14

CirclFi's 10 active models place CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) between $6.43 and $44.14 per share, a spread of 183% of the median. The median of that range — $20.60 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CAPL, against a current price of $23.09.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$6.43median $20.60$44.14
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$6.43
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$44.14
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CAPL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CAPL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CrossAmerica Partners LP's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $20.60. Trading at $23.09, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -10.8%), as 7 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $44.14 (+91.2%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $6.43 (-72.1%). This +163.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about CrossAmerica Partners LP's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CAPL?

10 of 13 models are currently active for CAPL. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CAPL is $20.60 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $19.53 on its own, implying -15.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CAPL Rank in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing?

Among 19 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, CAPL ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

The Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For CrossAmerica Partners LP, metrics like debt-to-EBITDAX provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is CAPL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CAPL a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for CrossAmerica Partners LP. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CrossAmerica Partners LP scores 7.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +163.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CAPL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CAPL's 10 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CrossAmerica Partners LP Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks with 13-model coverage

CVICVR Energy, Inc.QOC 7.3DKLDelek Logistics Partners, LPQOC 6.8WKCWorld Kinect CorporationQOC 7.4BDCOBlue Dolphin Energy CompanyQOC 6.6DKDelek US Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.6CSANCosan S.A.QOC 6.6CLNEClean Energy Fuels Corp.QOC 6.5PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6DINOHF Sinclair CorporationQOC 8.1UGPUltrapar Participações S.A.QOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: CVI · DKL · WKC · BDCO · DK · CSAN · CLNE · PARR · DINO · UGP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CAPL?

7 companies across all industries closest to CAPL’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

SLFSun Life Financial Inc.QOC 7.1KSSKohl's CorporationQOC 7.1ENREnergizer Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1AEEAmeren CorporationQOC 7.1ALXAlexander's, Inc.QOC 7.1DSPViant Technology Inc.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SLF · KSS · ENR · AEE · ALX · DSP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About CrossAmerica Partners LP’s Valuation?

What is CrossAmerica Partners LP's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL)'s intrinsic value at $20.60 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $6.43 to $44.14. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $19.53 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CAPL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.09, 3 of 10 active models suggest CAPL may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $20.60, 10.8% below the current price of $23.09 — a consensus view that CAPL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CrossAmerica Partners LP's business model in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for CAPL?

CrossAmerica Partners LP's QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CAPL?

CirclFi analyzes CAPL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CAPL?

Of the 10 models currently active on CAPL, First Chicago is the most bullish at $44.14 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $6.43. CirclFi's published fair value for CAPL is the median of that range, $20.60, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 183% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CAPL a value trap in 2026?

CrossAmerica Partners LP's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) has a median fair value of $20.60 — 10.8% below the current price of $23.09 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CAPL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CAPL valuation
  • Financial statements: CrossAmerica Partners LP 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001538849) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CAPL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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