CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) Fair Value 2026

CAPL · Wholesale-Petroleum & Petroleum Products (No Bulk Stations) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) trades at $22.47, approximately 45% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $40.61. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CAPL
Price
$22.47
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +201.6% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($22.47)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$40.61 +80.7%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$18.43 -18.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$33.40 +48.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$67.77 +201.6%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on CrossAmerica Partners LP at $22.47. With an estimated intrinsic value of $33.93 and 8 of 12 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +51.0%. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $80.50 (+258.3%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $1.70 (-92.4%). This +350.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about CrossAmerica Partners LP's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CAPL?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CAPL. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CAPL's intrinsic value at $40.61, implying +80.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CAPL Rank in Wholesale-Petroleum & Petroleum Products (No Bulk Stations)?

Among 8 Wholesale-Petroleum & Petroleum Products (No Bulk Stations) stocks, CAPL ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places CAPL in the top tier.

The Wholesale-Petroleum & Petroleum Products (No Bulk Stations) sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy businesses. For CrossAmerica Partners LP, metrics like debt-to-EBITDAX provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is CAPL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CAPL a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for CrossAmerica Partners LP. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, CrossAmerica Partners LP scores 8.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +350.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CAPL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CAPL's 12 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy CrossAmerica Partners LP Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Wholesale-Petroleum & Petroleum Products (No Bulk Stations) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

7 related Wholesale-Petroleum & Petroleum Products (No Bulk Stations) stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: WKC · TMDE · DLXY · PTLE · BANL

Frequently Asked Questions About CrossAmerica Partners LP

What is CrossAmerica Partners LP's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $40.61. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CAPL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $22.47, 9 of 12 active models suggest CAPL may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits CrossAmerica Partners LP's business model in Wholesale-Petroleum & Petroleum Products (No Bulk Stations).

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for CAPL?

CrossAmerica Partners LP's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CAPL?

CirclFi analyzes CAPL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CAPL a value trap in 2026?

CrossAmerica Partners LP's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on CAPL.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access