ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) Fair Value 2026

APC · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) trades at $18.50, versus a $13.42 median fair value across its 3 active models — 27.5% below the current price. QOC: 4.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
APC
Price
$18.50
Quality Score
4.5/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +11.9% upside with 12% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.5/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $13.42, 27.5% below the current price of $18.50. Estimates range from $0.21 to $20.70. APC scores 4.5/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. APC’s -27.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector median is -25.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ARKO Petroleum Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give APC?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($18.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $13.42 -27.5%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $20.70 +11.9%
Option-Based · Low Conviction
 $0.21 -98.9%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is APC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $0.21 to $20.70

CirclFi's 3 active models place ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) between $0.21 and $20.70 per share, a spread of 153% of the median. The median of that range — $13.42 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for APC, against a current price of $18.50.

Low · PWERMHigh · Regime Cross
$0.21median $13.42$20.70
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelPWERM$0.21
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$20.70
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for APC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on APC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $13.42. Trading at $18.50, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -27.5%), as 2 of 3 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $20.70 (+11.9%), versus PWERM at $0.21 (-98.9%). This +110.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About APC?

3 of 13 models are currently active for APC. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for APC is $13.42 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does APC Rank in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing?

Among 19 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, APC ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.5 reflects mixed fundamentals.

The Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sector introduces analytical considerations specific to energy producer businesses. For ARKO Petroleum Corp., metrics like reserve replacement ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is APC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns APC a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for ARKO Petroleum Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, ARKO Petroleum Corp. earns a quality score of 4.5/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +110.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every APC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across APC's 3 active models, average confidence is 10%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ARKO Petroleum Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks with 13-model coverage

FGPRFerrellgas Partners, L.P.QOC 6.0DLXYDelixy Holdings LimitedQOC 2.7CLNEClean Energy Fuels Corp.QOC 6.5UGPUltrapar Participações S.A.QOC 8.8CSANCosan S.A.QOC 6.6PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6MPCMarathon Petroleum CorporationQOC 8.5SUNSunoco LPQOC 7.7DKLDelek Logistics Partners, LPQOC 6.8

Read investment analysis: FGPR · DLXY · CLNE · UGP · CSAN · PARR · MPC · SUN · DKL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to APC?

7 companies across all industries closest to APC’s Quality of Company score of 4.5/10.

RVRCRevium Rx.QOC 4.5KYTXKyverna Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.5ANYSphere 3D Corp.QOC 4.5VGASVerde Clean Fuels, Inc.QOC 4.5BOLDBoundless Bio, Inc.QOC 4.5INOInovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RVRC · KYTX · ANY · VGAS · BOLD · INO · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ARKO Petroleum Corp.’s Valuation?

What is ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC)'s intrinsic value at $13.42 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.21 to $20.70. The Quality of Company score is 4.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is APC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $18.50, 1 of 3 active models suggest APC may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $13.42, 27.5% below the current price of $18.50 — a consensus view that APC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s business model in Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.5 mean for APC?

ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s QOC of 4.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on APC?

CirclFi analyzes APC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on APC?

Of the 3 models currently active on APC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $20.70 per share, and PWERM is the most bearish at $0.21. CirclFi's published fair value for APC is the median of that range, $13.42, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 153% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is APC a value trap in 2026?

ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC) has a median fair value of $13.42 — 27.5% below the current price of $18.50 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/APC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this APC valuation
  • Financial statements: ARKO Petroleum Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002080921) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for APC as of ; valuations recomputed .