Hawaiian Electric Industries, I (HE) Fair Value 2026

HE · Electric Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (15/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Hawaiian Electric Industries, I (HE) trades at $13.52, approximately 110% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $6.44. QOC: 7.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 15/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HE
Price
$13.52
Quality Score
7.9/10
Value Trap Risk
15/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +21.9% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.52)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$6.44 -52.4%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$3.60 -73.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$10.30 -23.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$16.48 +21.9%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Hawaiian Electric Industries, I (HE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Hawaiian Electric Industries, I at its current price of $13.52. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $12.85 (-5.0% average return), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $41.59 (+207.6%), while RCMH-DCF — the most conservative — estimates $0.31 (-97.7%). This +305.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Hawaiian Electric Industries, I's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HE?

12 of 13 models are currently active for HE. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HE's intrinsic value at $6.44, implying -52.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HE Rank in Electric Services?

Among 72 Electric Services stocks, HE ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.9 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Electric Services Stocks →

Within the Electric Services space, Hawaiian Electric Industries, I competes in an environment where payout ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is HE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HE a score of 15/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Hawaiian Electric Industries, I. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Hawaiian Electric Industries, I is rated at 7.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +305.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HE's 12 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hawaiian Electric Industries, I Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Electric Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Electric Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CEPU · VST · NEE · HNRG · TAC

See all Electric Services stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Hawaiian Electric Industries, I

What is Hawaiian Electric Industries, I's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Hawaiian Electric Industries, I (HE) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $6.44. The Quality of Company score is 7.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.52, 5 of 12 active models suggest HE may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hawaiian Electric Industries, I's business model in Electric Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.9 mean for HE?

Hawaiian Electric Industries, I's QOC of 7.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HE?

CirclFi analyzes HE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HE a value trap in 2026?

Hawaiian Electric Industries, I's Value Trap score is 15/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on HE.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access