Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Fair Value 2026

JEF · Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) trades at $52.59, approximately 21% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $66.79. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
JEF
Price
$52.59
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +38.5% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($52.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $66.79 +27.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $43.04 -18.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
 $58.77 +11.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $72.86 +38.5%

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What Is Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Jefferies Financial Group Inc. at $52.59. With an estimated intrinsic value of $61.98 and 7 of 12 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +17.9%. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $116.66 (+121.8%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $22.60 (-57.0%). This +178.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About JEF?

12 of 13 models are currently active for JEF. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates JEF's intrinsic value at $66.79, implying +27.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JEF Rank in Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies?

Among 33 Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks, JEF ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies Stocks →

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is JEF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JEF a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Jefferies Financial Group Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +178.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JEF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JEF's 12 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks with 13-model coverage

FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 10.0SIEBSiebert Financial Corp.QOC 9.7BLKBlackRock, Inc.QOC 9.7IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc.QOC 9.3MKTXMarketAxess Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.2SCHWCharles Schwab Corporation (TheQOC 9.0HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.0RJFRaymond James Financial, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: FUTU · SIEB · BLK · IBKR · MKTX

See all Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Jefferies Financial Group Inc.

What is Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $66.79. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JEF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $52.59, 8 of 12 active models suggest JEF may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s business model in Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for JEF?

Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JEF?

CirclFi analyzes JEF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is JEF a value trap in 2026?

Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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