Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Fair Value 2026

JEF · Capital Markets ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) trades at $52.84, versus a $39.17 median fair value across its 6 active models — 25.9% below the current price. QOC: 7.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
JEF
Price
$52.84
Quality Score
7.0/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $39.17, 25.9% below the current price of $52.84. Estimates range from $28.65 to $97.65. JEF scores 7.0/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. JEF’s -25.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Capital Markets sector median is -34.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give JEF?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($52.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.62 -26.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $39.72 -24.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.65 -45.8%
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What Is JEF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $28.65 to $97.65

CirclFi's 6 active models place Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) between $28.65 and $97.65 per share, a spread of 176% of the median. The median of that range — $39.17 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for JEF, against a current price of $52.84.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$28.65median $39.17$97.65
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$28.65
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$97.65
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for JEF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on JEF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Jefferies Financial Group Inc. at its current price of $52.84. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $39.17 (-25.9% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $97.65 (+84.8%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $28.65 (-45.8%). This +130.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About JEF?

6 of 13 models are currently active for JEF. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for JEF is $39.17 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does JEF Rank in Capital Markets?

Among 103 Capital Markets stocks, JEF ranks #33 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Capital Markets Stocks →

Within the Capital Markets space, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. competes in an environment where CET1 capital ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is JEF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns JEF a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Jefferies Financial Group Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.0/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +130.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every JEF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across JEF's 6 active models, average confidence is 39%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Jefferies Financial Group Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Capital Markets Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Capital Markets stocks with 13-model coverage

MSMorgan StanleyQOC 7.1MIAXMiami International Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9NMRNomura Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1CANGCango Inc.QOC 6.8HGBLHeritage Global Inc.QOC 7.3CRCLCircle Internet GroupQOC 6.7WULFTeraWulf Inc.QOC 5.6NAKANakamoto Inc.QOC 4.3IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc.QOC 9.0FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: MS · MIAX · NMR · CANG · HGBL · CRCL · WULF · NAKA · IBKR · FUTU · HOOD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to JEF?

7 companies across all industries closest to JEF’s Quality of Company score of 7.0/10.

MRNAModerna, Inc.QOC 7.0MXCTMaxCyte, Inc.QOC 7.0TALKTalkspace IncQOC 7.0LQDALiquidia CorporationQOC 7.0PEBPebblebrook Hotel TrustQOC 7.0ARWArrow Electronics, Inc.QOC 7.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MRNA · MXCT · TALK · LQDA · PEB · ARW · NVDA

Where Does JEF Sit in CirclFi's Capital Markets Rankings?

JEF is ranked against every other Capital Markets stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Capital Markets stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Jefferies Financial Group Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF)'s intrinsic value at $39.17 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $28.65 to $97.65. The Quality of Company score is 7.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is JEF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $52.84, 2 of 6 active models suggest JEF may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $39.17, 25.9% below the current price of $52.84 — a consensus view that JEF is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s business model in Capital Markets.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.0 mean for JEF?

Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s QOC of 7.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on JEF?

CirclFi analyzes JEF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on JEF?

Of the 6 models currently active on JEF, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $97.65 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $28.65. CirclFi's published fair value for JEF is the median of that range, $39.17, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 176% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is JEF a value trap in 2026?

Jefferies Financial Group Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) has a median fair value of $39.17 — 25.9% below the current price of $52.84 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/JEF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this JEF valuation
  • Financial statements: Jefferies Financial Group Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000096223) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for JEF as of ; valuations recomputed .

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