DaVita Inc. (DVA) Fair Value 2026

DVA · Medical Care Facilities ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, DaVita Inc. (DVA) trades at $180.68, versus a $316.88 median fair value across its 10 active models — 75.4% above the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $278.20.

Key Facts

Ticker
DVA
Price
$180.68
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +56.4% upside with 27% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is DaVita Inc. (DVA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, DaVita Inc. (DVA) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $316.88, 75.4% above the current price of $180.68. Estimates range from $58.08 to $447.75. DVA scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. DVA’s +75.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Medical Care Facilities sector median is -28.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy DaVita Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DVA?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($180.68)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $278.20 +54.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $172.24 -4.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $282.66 +56.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $58.08 -67.9%
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What Is DVA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $58.08 to $447.75

CirclFi's 10 active models place DaVita Inc. (DVA) between $58.08 and $447.75 per share, a spread of 123% of the median. The median of that range — $316.88 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DVA, against a current price of $180.68.

Low · EROICHigh · Markov DDM
$58.08median $316.88$447.75
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$58.08
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$447.75
Model agreement8 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DVA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DVA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is DaVita Inc. (DVA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for DaVita Inc.. Trading at $180.68 against an estimated intrinsic value of $316.88, 8 of 10 active models flag meaningful upside of +75.4% at the median. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $447.75 (+147.8%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $58.08 (-67.9%). This +215.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about DaVita Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DVA?

10 of 13 models are currently active for DVA. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DVA is $316.88 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $278.20 on its own, implying +54.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DVA Rank in Medical Care Facilities?

Among 60 Medical Care Facilities stocks, DVA ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Medical Care Facilities Stocks →

DaVita Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is DVA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DVA a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for DaVita Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, DaVita Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.5/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +215.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DVA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DVA's 10 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy DaVita Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medical Care Facilities Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Medical Care Facilities stocks with 13-model coverage

GRDNGuardian Pharmacy Services, Inc.QOC 7.6CONConcentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.QOC 7.5BTMDbiote Corp.QOC 7.7FMSFresenius Medical Care AGQOC 7.3HCSGHealthcare Services Group, Inc.QOC 7.7LFSTLifeStance Health Group, Inc.QOC 7.2RHEPRegional Health Properties, Inc.QOC 6.2SNDASonida Senior Living, Inc.QOC 5.2UHSUniversal Health Services, Inc.QOC 8.5ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9NHCNational HealthCare CorporationQOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: GRDN · CON · BTMD · FMS · HCSG · LFST · RHEP · SNDA · UHS · ADUS · NHC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DVA?

7 companies across all industries closest to DVA’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

TWINTwin Disc, IncorporatedQOC 7.5ARKOArko Corp.QOC 7.5AMRCAmeresco, Inc.QOC 7.5ELPCCompanhia Paranaense de EnergiaQOC 7.5FSBWFS Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5MURMurphy Oil CorporationQOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TWIN · ARKO · AMRC · ELPC · FSBW · MUR · NVDA

Where Does DVA Sit in CirclFi's Medical Care Facilities Rankings?

DVA is ranked against every other Medical Care Facilities stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Medical Care Facilities stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About DaVita Inc.’s Valuation?

What is DaVita Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts DaVita Inc. (DVA)'s intrinsic value at $316.88 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $58.08 to $447.75. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $278.20 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DVA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $180.68, 8 of 10 active models suggest DVA may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $316.88, 75.4% above the current price of $180.68 — a consensus view that DVA is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits DaVita Inc.'s business model in Medical Care Facilities.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for DVA?

DaVita Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DVA?

CirclFi analyzes DVA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DVA?

Of the 10 models currently active on DVA, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $447.75 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $58.08. CirclFi's published fair value for DVA is the median of that range, $316.88, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 123% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DVA a value trap in 2026?

DaVita Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, DaVita Inc. (DVA) has a median fair value of $316.88 — 75.4% above the current price of $180.68 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DVA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DVA valuation
  • Financial statements: DaVita Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000927066) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DVA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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